2 months down market=CMK $1.5
The commodity came under pressure immediately after the June jobs report was posted.
Given the underwhelming number of payroll increases, participants have questioned the pace of economic recovery and, as a result, sold the cyclically sensitive commodity.
Oil prices were last quoted with a 3% loss
Whole week of S&P 500 gains erased in 1 day
As I said here
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=CMK&t=LIST&m=29942723&l=0&pd=0&r=0&msg=3
the gaps have to be closed (see how nicely SP and KOL gaps closed next day)
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Now SP 5 days H&S = 20 pts down to go ,short term
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Same KOL
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=kol
Long term,market : the analysts who make middle of the road calls is the max we can hope for .
They predict same H2 as H1 =
range SP 1250- 1350
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Well , hit yesterday the ceiling of 1350 and see the reaction today .
Seems, 1- 1.5 month of going down "summer doldrums " till Sep low 1250
Vacations time ( many factories 2 weeks shut downs) is not conductive to Q 3 earnings growth
and ANEMIC ,REVISED STEADY DOWN GDP.
Given, Sep.Oct.traditional crash time ( the lower summer earnings get reported)'
the 1250 support may not hold then.
Republicans .seem to be determined to do to this gov they did to Clinton .
Shut gov down for few weeks over debt =only essential services.
That will do lotsa psycho damage and worsen the BAD job stats.
Same range 51- 44 for KOL, except KOL is WEAKER than SP =was able only to
reach 2/3 of i't's top of range resistance .
But perfectly capable to drop to it's bottom of range .
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=kol
If KOL will drop 49 - 44= 10%, cos like CMK will easy drop 20% by Sep
CMK disappointing most of them = 30% = at / below $ 2 .
But hey ,God talking to himself ( Cooper) when times get desperate
will do posts like this :
" I , the tard ,WISH KOL / SP will jump 100% up by Sep, , 200% by Dec
and in Q 1 2012 will be taken over by China for 300%" LOOL
"So I the GOD , say: buy ,buy , buy my terribly losing shares "
( and lose another $$ millions on top of lost tens of $ millions, following CRIMINAL GOD's -pump/scam)
Why criminal ?
God knows exactly how misleading half truth the 380 mt resource is.
The $ 100b resource pump/ scam has 2 steps:
1. First, the dishonest co - posts just 1/2 truth- just the 380mt in ground
2.In order for pumpers like GOD to use his tard -math and multiplay it by
$ 300/t and post endlessly thousands of times "$ 100B in ground"
The HONEST COS post WHOLE TRUTH.= 2 numbers
The total resource and the RECOVERABLE RESERVE
Honest cos to not count on catching the lowest ,dumbest layer of
potential suckers
See HONEST GCE NR about it's resource
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/Grande-Cache-Coal-Corporation-ccn-2655537503.html?x=0&.v=1
Coal Resources 346.0 million tonnes
Saleable Coal Reserves 97.5 million tonnes. = 1/4
The last sentence CMK conveniently misses in it's NR's.
Given CMK more uneconomical seams and lesser thickness of the economical ones,
( economical at $ 300/t but MUCH LESS economical / not economical at future possible $ 120/t )
the est CMK Saleable Coal Reserves are 1/5 = 80mt
The IRONY of their pump is _ THEY DO NOT HAVE TO DO THIS
There is enough coal to have a mine
YET , they do this .
Why ?
Because the innuendo, half truths is in IN THEIR BLOOD - embeded during 12 y of doing it .
They can not help themselves but mislead - regardless if misleading is making sense or not .
They enjoy too much a help of TARD- MATHEMATICIANS like GOD. and the effect of
big MISLEADING NUMBERS on dumb people.
https://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/pju/lowres/pjun62l.jpg
==================
While above problem is not material on CMK future profitability ,or lack of it
( just shows the attitude of mngement towards sucking public and GOD's CRIMINAL INTEND )
the next "convenient omission" is
.
THE RATIO OF THERMAL COAL TO MET in overall prod.
Here CMK , doesn't even play 1/2 truth games.
They play just STUPID - "we are met coal producer"
That prompts pumpers like GOD AGAIN, to multiply 100% supposed met prod by $ 300/t
Well, the truth is , NO MET COAL PRODUCER PRODUCES 100% met volume.
The ratio varies among cos and from Q to Q
-it is between 15- 25%.
Given CMK coal quality just 1 notch above top thermal -their ratio will lilely
be on high side.
More examples of scamy behaviour
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetailThread.aspx?p=0&m=29831636&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
THAT will lower the AVER SALE PRICE PER TONE by like 20% on top of 20% ( according to TD anal .and me saying that for months ) lower CMK coal -grade price vs TOP NOTCH HCC BENCHMARK .
If blending of CMK coal with better quality coals will be needed - even lower price.
Just those 2 factors mean 40% lower AVERAGE CMK price = $ 180/t.at $ 300 benchmark
$ 120/t at $ 200/t future possible benchmark
(seems, @ $ 200/t benchmark CMK is close to BANKRUPTCY)
At this SP prediction of $ 120 /t
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29810630&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
CMK and plenty others are SOOO DEAD .
Who needs them anyways after Mozambique and Mongolia will increase
supply by 60mt (see below)
geeesus
S
uch aver/ T price( $ 180) is in line with other cos , especially US miners
See the extasy when PCX after selling $ 135/t /2011 sold next contract 2011- 2012 for $ 173/t
LOL
https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/21/patriotcoal-idUSL3E7FL1L320110421
BTW.
why everybody is quoting $ 300/t of Australian top HCC quality benchmark and 99% of US miners are selling for not more than $ 200 FOB???
No reflection/ thought on that GOD?
Only that price makes PCX PROFITABLE A LITTLE ( CMK can not compare
to the depth of mining , transporting , marketing ,cost cutting experience /savvy,
the long established producers have)
Not to mention LOCATION ,LOCATION.
Even the Jennings dude originally used $ 170/t US BENCHMARK
but conveniently forgot to arrive at = 140/t CMK case.... geeesus
Later, to,make up for CMK 3 times lower production (800-900kt lower geeesus )
he adjusted the BENCHMARK US price up to $ 200/t .
To keep his FANTASY TARGET just 50 c lower than before.
Geeesus another tard- mathematician.
Who gave him high school diploma?
More about brokers little scams here
https://stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29845570&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
====================
Of course the trial shipment will be HAND PICKED 1 chunk of coal at the time
to sort out bad quality / get the "met. qualification"
and the thermal portion will be put aside and not sold for long time.
To allow for another future misleading NR -" we sold INITIAL 10-20kt LOL at XYZ -high price."
================
On the cost side :
5k miles from Gladstone = AU port to Guangzhou vs 12k-13k miles C-Cristi to Guangzhou
(exactly 1/2 the globe at equator) mans CMK has to sell at $15-20/t less
depending on wildly fluctuating shipping costs to be competitively priced
at Asian ports.
Cheap Chinese will dump you as supplier in no time when they
can squeeze $1/t less elsewhere.
1. The very inefficient /costly logistics
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=CMK&t=LIST&m=29837124&l=0&pd=0&r=0
2. and 1/2 the continent rail distance to port***
3 .+ very inefficient /costly port logistic/ handling or lack of it **
will add like $15- 20/ t to cost vs competition
So, $ 180/ sale - $ 30/t higher (on top of regular ) shipping /railing /handling cost = $ 150/t
Add contractor adding 10-15% to cost of prod
( he is HUGELY interested in running up costs as high as CMK can bear it LOL)
Another say, $ 10/t = $ 140/t
GCE avoided bankruptcy only by firing contractor and the lousy COO in year 3
( the lousy COO ended up after that in Mongolian desert , now back, establishing his own "scheme" = coal explorer .
Highly recommended investment for GOD though LOL )
At such low 300k METRIC T ( 350/t SHORT T is yet another little scam )
production , their cost will be north of 160 /t
Even at 1mt their cost will be north of $ 140/t
LOOOOOSES AS FAR AS EYES CAN SEE
GEEEESUS
=============
THE TARGET PRICE
Reserve becomes a no / little factor in a valuation of producer ,as long as there is enough for next 10-15 Y
EPS becomes the ONLY one which counts.
Yet GOD tries to keep the good ,DELUSIONAL,GONE FOR EVER times
of INFERIOR and BS valuation based on 75- 80% UNRECOVERABLE COAL IN GROUND.
...GEEEESUS Criminal intentions in deed .
In order to justify CMK $ 2.5 PPS at P/E 5 , they must do 50c EPS
x 215 m sh = $ 107m earnings.(not CF)
At 1.5 mt prod 2012 ( if they will make that much at all 2012, GIVEN THE 300% MISSES HISTORY )
they
must do earnings of $ 70/t , if coal will stay at $ 300/t in 2012 ( forget that )
NOOOOOOOO WAAAAY
They won't make, IF AT ALL,more than $ 40/t 2012 x 1.5mt = $ 60m= 28c /sh EPS = $ 1.5 TRAGET at 5 P/E.
Less , because they will either have to dilute more ,
if suckers will be willing to finance them = throw good money after bad = and lose more - as latest PP shows .
TD newscrest says that
they will run out of cash in Oct.
By H2 2012 CMK can have like 250m sh = 2012 EPS will be 15% lower
= 25 c/sh = $ 1.25 target.
Or take on debt (
no bank will lent them money without BANKABLE FEASIBILITY - which they do not have)
They have just PEA by the same guy, who HAS PROVEN to be VERY ( 300% ) WRONG
on his previous PEA / Tech Rep.
They will need MANY TENS OF MILLIONS MORE and YEARS of investing them ***
to arrive at EFFICIENT 2- 2.5 mt ( 1.5 - 2mt kt of it met ) by 2014.
NEVER( not before 2017) GONNA SELL 3 mt overall ,
YET ALONE 3mt met
( flashing 3 mt CAPACITY MET and GOD' turning it into 3mt production of 100% met
is yet another-
this one HUGE - scam )
===================
Notes
***
rail spur $ 25 m , + loadout and storage infrastructure+ the permits and land for that , they do not have
*** port infrastructure e
st $ 20 m - they have just bare, expensive ($ 2m rent) piece of land there.( or else = high on operating costs and time backhole toys)
*** 4 sections x $ 11m each =
$ 55m .
*** portal , access , slope to Blue Seam , conveyor , vents , electric , beach head -
$ 20m
OOPS , just those 4 things and like $ 40 m shortage ?? = 20m sh dilution @ $ 2.?
With meaningless sales in 2011?
geeeesus
How do you think they will unload the needed 70 kt to fill SMALL SHIP ?
Panamamax means ANOTHER higher shipping cost
How they will move that 70kt from rail line location to ,like 1 km- 1 mile away storage pile
https://alaskarailroad.com/Portals/6/Images/Gravel_unload_sm.jpg
.
How they will move back that 70kt from storage pile to 1km away ship loader?
Looks, they will need this machinery to do cost effective handling at port.
vs using inefficient "spoon or shovel."and trucks.
https://www.fam.de/generator/streamimage.php?res=stage_a&family=0511leadp_stackers
https://www.miningphoto.com/show/49/detail
Plus 1 mi long conveyor belt ( or longer - depending how far the yard is
from ship loader- and they of course won't tell you--HALLOO ANYBODY
ON THE OTHER END OF PHONE LINE CAN ANSWER THIS VERY SIMPLE
QUESTION? WHY IT IS SUCH BIG SECRET? HALLOOO < KNOCK < KNOCK !!
ANYBODY HOME ?,
CAN ANYBODY TELL ME WHAT HAPPENED TO MY ( INVESTOR's) MONEY ??
I called so many people here and they answered my questions.
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=CMK&t=LIST&m=29856631&l=0&pd=0&r=0&msg=3
Well ,his cell phone must have gotten out of range suddenly LOOOOOL )
,hoppers , integration/ connection of belts with the ship loader. etc.The port as it is can handle
small ( though lengthy on time)- 1-2 train loads at no extra investment in handling equipment.
But 2 mt? GEEESUS ( yes, the port won't handle more than 2mt /y CMK coal)
See Neptune - just upgrade in coal handling equip = $ 63 m ( sprinklers on high polls all over the storage pile - this stuff is volatile
https://www.exponent.com/Coke-and-Coal-Shiploader-Fire-Los-Angeles-Port/
, dust control and EPA air pollution permits ,fiefighting access and equipment etc.
https://www.neptuneterminals.com/news-post/neptune-terminals-investing-63-5-million-in-north-vancouver/
IE >this truck loading station has just 250t /hr capacity
=5 trucks, and
you need 200 trucks to fill a train = 40hrs just loading trucks
+ 2 hrs each truck to drive to Jansen ,unload and return +loading on train
geeeesus a LOGISIC NIGHTMARE ***if no 10kt storage permit at Jansen.
Hallo, anybody can tell me what's the storage permit at Jansen is ? Aren't permits docs available to pubic in gov offices/ on line ?
Yet ,such small station doesn't look as inexpensive investment .
https://www.fam.de/generator/streamimage.php?res=detail_stage_b&family=GER/vls10/vls101109b006
*** Google Burlington Rail fees -
they are pretty pesky on overcharging.
W Buffet bought them to exploit a loophole allowing rail monopolists to pass the premium
he paid for take over on the customers
.And that's like $ 2 B !!!
He started overcharging big time.
This caused tens of lawsuits between Burlington and miners and utility customers.
dragging for years now.
In addition, he came up with the same scam as banks - adding plenty of additional charges for every little thing which used to be free.
IE 75% of rail cars Burlington hauls is owned by customers ( hallo CMK- more money ?)
So, they charge customers "storage/ rent fee" of empty cars sitting on Burlington rails .
Or ' dust prevention fee" , or demuraging ,/ loading /unloading time lost fee
( will be big in CMK case),
geeesus, now you know how Buffet is making his billions- screwing customers
who do not have any other choice ( monopoly).to the max .
CMK will pay not only the hauling fee you see in the press of cars owned by customer .
They will pay for renting Burlington cars and as newcomer with UNUSUAL
NEW AND LONG ROUTE will have to pay whatever Buffet throws at them
( more than any others ...1 mt /y or even 2 mt is not worth bothering for guy moving
300mt /y ....unless there are unusually high profits/ t involved )
Burlington has 2 pricing schemes . SPOT = most expensive = CMK
Contract "TAKE OR PAY" at declared ahead tonnage /y = cheaper .
My next analysis of similar ,doing BAD co - they declared 900kt/y in first Y
Sold 168kt .Have to pay rail and port charges for 900ky.anyways.
That little mistake rised their transport cost by 5 times.
If CMK will go for such contract and deliver the usual 3 times less
their transport cost /t will be north of $120/ t LOOOL.
They already shut themselves in foot by paying $ 2m lease of port yard
+more for Jansen yard and not using it . geeesus.
==================
;
CMK ships = 50-70kt vs Westshore 200kt ships ,Neptune,Ridley 180kt ,
Vale serving NOW it's NEW Mozambique met coal mine with 400kt super bulkers
(CMK ships = toys in comparison)
On the way back from China (ore) Vale will pick up met coal to Brazil .
GEEEENUS arrangement = lowering distance cost disadvantage to close on AU mines low shipping cost.
BTW: huge surge of met supply by like 60mt from just 3 mega projects :
1. Vale's mine 6.3mt prod 2012 ,22mt A YEAR PRODUCTION 2014.
https://www.proinvestor.com/boards/35127/BULK---Vale-ore-fleet-to-drag-freight-rates-lower-Zodiac-
2 . neighboring 2 RTP/Wuhan Mozambique mines will do another 17- 20 mt by 2014
3.the just awarded Oyou Tolgoy biggest in world met mine another 20mt by 2014
4. Tata and others just got yet another as big as (1) and (2) license in Mozambique.
Just Mozambique is poised to be as big seaborne supplier as Australia and controlled by just handful of cos.
Geeeeesus. -- a doubling of supply in few years -
Just in time CMK will reach it's FANTASY production LOL.
J
ust Vale and Wuhan met mines will OVERSUPPLY future Brazil demand growth by like 5mt.
FOR EVER
So, forget long term Brazilian met market .
It belongs to Vale.and Wuhan- supplying their OWN Brazilian mills with own met.
They may even chase away today's non- Brazilian suppliers out of Brazil.
So, the only hope is China. But it took a PhD analyst on latest conference
to state OBVIOUS CONCLUSION.
China steel prod ( 20% overcapacity ) reached 55% of world's.
Does future 50% growh to 80% of world's is likely ?
NOT AT ALL.
They are approaching the ceiling .
Yet, the ore miners are investing $ billions in 100% ore prod growth.
To similar extend they invest in met prod growth.
GEEESUS .... A COLAPSE IN PRICES IS NOT A QUESTION OF "IF ".
Besides ,China is fully capable of coal self- sufficiency.Just matter of time.
That leaves last resort :Japan (not growing) and POSCO (their India mills)
But that market is MATURE ,TAKEN and GUARDED by the existing cos.-dominated by cozy stakes/ relationships of Jap cos and POSCO with their suppliers ( IE: GCE- POSCO and JCE, TEC POSCO JCE, Sumitomo and Chinese ,BHP/Mitsui in AU etc ).
MItsui DEFINITELY DON"T WANT TO DO ANYTHING WITH CMK - THEY GRAB THE MONEY AND RUN insted of investing ,or at least promising take-off....geeesus.
Things for small URELIABLE newcomers ,not interconected with Asian mills do not work like this :
"Hey, Mao -i will sell you lowest quality met (if I will be able to produce it in the first place LOL ) at highest price" LOOL
This may work for a while with Chinese , but look at Fording experience.
They signed big comtract with some Chinese. The moment price on spot dropped ,Chinese said - F- yourself Fording. With FDG holding the bag = invested in capacity expansion.
** US SEC regulations require for bankable and NAV purpose to take
average price of commodity from 3 back years as basis of calculations ( no tard -math here )
Au and Cu cos doing presentations based on price just little below latest price are simply a FRAUD by those standards.
So is assuming 5% NPV discount for mines which won't get on line in 10 y
( change from 5% to only 10% discount slashes NPV's by like 5 - geeesus.)
Not to mention publishing useless pre-tax NPVs.
RED FLAGS APLENTY IN VANCOUVER EXPLORERS>
CMK HAVING IT's OWN SHARE OF THEM.
Without the little scams many of them wouldn't exist today.
All boils down to honesty of the mngment.
CMK 12 Y history ( just look at the 3 previous pumps and dumps)
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CMK.TO&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
doesn't look too good in that departement.
===============
As takeover of CMK - my next analysis of takeover of similar mine - MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL than CMK ,taking place RIGHT NOW
will show
CMK TO value $ 1.73 /sh - WAY IN the FUTURE
Less after future dilution.
LOOL GEEESUS
========================
This is what GOD is trying to do .
https://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/pju/lowres/pjun62l.jpg
Why ?
Because he is hooked up already
https://blog.al.com/jdcrowe/2008/09/9-19-08OntheHook.jpg
LOOOL
.Remember GCE in year 3
40c down from $ 18 is 18c CMK equiv.
Yes ,the stock market is forward looking ....
At $ 1.5 CMK LOL
.80% of coal in world is produced by 20 biggest miners.
Exclusive club , too high entry cost for someone like Ben Kates.
The space is littered by failures of little guys you refuse to look at.
(a tendency to look at RARE LOTTO winners and forget the millions of losers,like GOD)
BTW a quick pool :how many of you play Lotto?
God does it in obsessive/ junkie / religious way for sure .
( he wouldn't be a GOD without religious ,irrational zeal LOL) .
Betting a farm too.
.