CANEXUS CORP 6.5 PCT DEBS T.CUS.DB.D

CFO for Canexus

[Kherson]

Serge, I have to disagree with you concerning the idea that a CFO has to be a lap dog for a CEO. Having worked for a few national corporations and government run organizations, it has always been expressed by management to do the right thing. If the CFO felt that he was indeed Gary's lapdog, he should have spoken up to the BOD long before this. I still maintain that the present CFO will be out the door soon after the new CEO is installed...
Nawar, I actually do have alot of respect for you. Certainly you are a more astute investor than me. But I personally don't keep a score card of who to believe based solely on how much money they have or have made in the markets. Just because you have made millions in the stockmarket, as I did once also, I place no more weight on your opinions than someone who has posted for the very first time. You have recently stated that Canexus may indeed cut the dividend. I totally agree with that thought, although I believe it will be eliminated for about a year. For anyone thinking about buying into Canexus, now is not the time...
Kherson

[ocean112]

what would be a good entry point for this stock Kherson?  Do you think there is room for more downside? If so - how much more?

[Kherson]

It really depends on what Canexus' 1st quarter numbers are like. If they eliminate the dividend for a period of time, don't be surprised to see the number 3 in the share price. Kherson

[ocean112]

Hi Kherson - this author seems to lay out a good case why Canexus may not cut thier dividend....do you agree? https://seekingalpha.com/article/2146833-will-canexus-cut-its-dividend

[Kherson]

The author does make some good points. But in my mind, the first quarter results will determine the dividend amount to be paid out... Kherson

[hawk35]

Kherson ...You acaully wrote "in your mind: ... dude your mind is insane.  Exhibit one ... AET.  You pumped the divi was safe.  You went on and on and on and on until you sold and crawledl away with your tail between your legs.  What a joke you are now claiming the divi is threatened here  $50 million bucks says you are wrong.  And you only have to wait another

[Kherson]

Hawk, are you betting me $50 million bucks of your own money that I am wrong about Canexus cutting or eliminating the dividend based on the next quarterly financials? Hawk, I don't want your money, but if you do want to bet, here is a wager that we can play. If Canexus doesn't cut or eliminate their dividend in the next six months, I promise never to again post on the Canexus SH board, but

[hawk35]

Kherson .. The $50 million bucks is a reference to the projected increase in cash flow from the unit trains at the end of the year.  The point is you don't cut the dividend when 1) the shortfall in cash is short term, 2) you have more than enough cash on hand to pay it into 2015 3) you have 50 million dollars coming your way in 8 months from a train that is guaranteed to be booked to

[philip3]

Kherson, You have been posting negative comments for a long time. I can only assume you have a large short position. What is the extent of your short position? Thanks, Phil

[maris]

I would like to chime in here and say that if Kherson has posted only negative comments look no futher then the stock price to see if he could have a point. To expect and worship only positive thoughts is not what I value. Yes optimism and happy hopes are what we all love but reality is move trustworthy and of value. So lets respect each others thoughts and not try to control this forum to

[ocean112]

I don't think it is too much to ask someone to back up thier analysis - whether positive or negative.  I think there have been a few who have provided more than solid reason why to own this stock based on detailed analysis.  But if you find consipiracy theories, and opinions without any real basis valuable - all the power to you...... I think all this board has asked of Kherson is

[Kherson]

I wish that I had indeed shorted this stock. I am underwater bigtime on Canexus. I can't take any more Capital Losses as I no longer have any previous Capital Gains to offset them. If I ever do again see an overall gain on any of my accounts, I will be selling all the holdings in that account and moving my money out of the markets. There are now just too many crooks controlling the

[ocean112]

I don't think you read the article Kherson - the author clearly states - Q1 2014 is highly unlikely to be a basis for a dividend cut until the work on NATO (From June to August) is completed.....but that said - can you be more specific... does canexus have a short term liquidity problem? (The article seems to suggest they don't) do they run the risk of exceeding thier debt covenants

[Kherson]

Ocean112, I don't know how much more clearer that I can be than my last post that tried to answer those questions. I agree that the author does have some good points, but I believe that the most important factor in determining a dividend cut will indeed be based on the 1st quarter results. If the financial results remain the same from 4th quarter, even the company's own all in payout ratio

[ocean112]

I guess i'm not seeing your analysis Kherson - you are making a claim that seems to contract the hard analysis provided by this article.....I guess the point you are making is the board will look at dividend policy based on ONE SINGLE quarter's EBITDA - when they have clearly said (per the article) they will look at expectation of FUTURE EBITDA, FUTURE debt, FUTURE capex, etc....which

[Kherson]

The real question and right now the only question that will affect the next dividend is how long can Canexus continue to carry an all in payout ratio of over 200%? If you believe that Canexus can and is willing to continue to finance a payout ratio above 200%, then yes the dividend is safe. I don't believe that, so hence my dividend cut/elimination theory... Kherson

[ocean112]

....so your argument is - this ratio - a point in time snapshot of dividend as a percentage of cash flow - for this quarter - will soley determine dividend policy .......no Board discussion of future EBITDA, future capex, debt levels, future liquidity, how the money would be redeployed if cut, etc. Ok...got it. Thank you.