CANEXUS CORP 6.5 PCT DEBS T.CUS.DB.D

NATO value

[Nawaralsaadi]

It is my guess that they have given up on taking NATO to 10.5 trains capacity themselves and ramping it up to that level, at this stage they are going to build a fully functional 6/7 trains capacity operation and hand the terminal to a buyer, it would up to the buyer to complete construction to 10.5 trains and ramp it up based on their own schedule.  

The press release made it very clear that they are in active divesture discussions, and I don’t see what’s to divest beside NATO, if they divest anything else, this means they will be doubling up on NATO and I doubt that fits the profile of the chemical focused CEO they just hired.
In mid-June CIBC issued a very informative analysis on NATO’s value and potential synergies with a multitude of potential buyers. CIBC valuation ranged from $400m to $620m, below is the breakdown:



Based on the above, CUS will likely recoup all of what it has invested in NATO and will likely generate a decent profit, a deal in the $500m range will fully wipe our debt and offer shareholders a stable debt free chemical producer, with enough balance sheet flexibility to expand its core chemical operations or buyback shares.   

Regards,
Nawar

[ferret_ca]

good post nawar.  if they can get nato right and make it profitable it would give the company some good diversity.  like they said there is huge potential with the dilutants and storage, it is in a great location and should only increase in value, even if all pipelines go ahead. this new ceo needs to get a handle on the inner workings of cus and cull the bad managers and others

[JustforFun7]

Is CIBC's valuation based on 6/7 train car capacity or 10.5 train car capacity? That's a 50% difference in that type of capacity for NATO. A huge difference. If they offer it up at only 6/7 capacity in functioning order, Buyers will want to pay a lot less.  If the analysts want NATO to be sold, CUS will probably oblige them. It's not like it's their main business. JFF7

[jd43xl]

That is a good question, and without that detail, the valuation is worthless.

[otcmoonbound]

Brilliant.  Failure to meet projected capacity despite endless delays and massive, repeated cost overruns.  But it's worth more now...  Here's the deal.  If it's really worth that much, sell the dang thing already.  Cause on a projected cash flow basis, this stock is FAR from cheap.  In fact, the dividend (which they'll probably have to cut) is the