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Investment summary
We rate the common shares of Cenovus Energy Outperform.
• Merger with Husky. Cenovus Energy’s merger with Husky Energy via a share-exchange plan of arrangement is strategically sound in our eyes. On paper, the transaction fuses Husky’s diverse upstream/mid-stream/ downstream operations with Cenovus’ bitumen-weighted upstream portfolio. Strategically, the deal addresses Cenovus’ Achilles heel, which has been cash flow volatility. Under one roof, Cenovus-Husky becomes a more balanced integrated oil company with increased cash flow diversification.
• 2021 Budget. The company’s 2021 budget pointed towards mid-point production of 755,000 boe/d in the context of $2.3-$2.7 billion of capital spending. Embedded within this capital program is $520-$570 million pertaining to the Superior refinery rebuild, which is largely expected to be covered via insurance proceeds.
• Top Tier In-Situ Matters. Cenovus’ Christina Lake in-situ SAGD operations have the lowest steam-oil ratio (SOR) industry wide, with Foster Creek not far behind.
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. . Greg Pardy, CFA (Head of Global Energy Research) (416) 842-7848 greg.pardy@rbccm.com
Outperform
TSX: CVE; CAD 9.83; NYSE: CVE
Price Target CAD 12.00
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