Post by
CashHungry on Apr 26, 2022 8:15pm
Q1 Earnings Report
Production numbers should be decent and the downstream contribution will definitely help with higher than forecasted refining margins. The results will be tempered by a hefty hedging expense to clear the ceiling moving foward. The real story will be guidance and some clear indication regarding shareholder returns. I suspect management will have a hard time containing their giddiness regarding any discussions relating to Q2.
Positive guideance will be buttressed by Q2 higer oil prices, ridiculously higher refining margins with 3-2-1 crack spreads approaching $55 ($37 higher than previously forecasted), as well as reduced hedging losses. If they couple optimistic guidance with meaningful shareholder returns such as 10% buybacks and 5% dividends (base + special) then I would expect CVE to be trading > $24 CAD within a week.
Comment by
CashHungry on Apr 26, 2022 8:16pm
As an added note: I over weighted my holdings by acquiring 2000 additional shares at today's close.
Comment by
1234bmth on Apr 26, 2022 8:23pm
I think hedging loss is already baked in the SP, investors' focus would be on FCF, guidance, debt reduction and return to shareholders ( increasing dividend and buyback).