Cenovus Energy Inc T.CVE

CVE outlook

[terster]

The forecasts for 2023 oil prices are all over the map - from $45 to $110 per barrel.  I'm interested in hat the board thinks of CVE's prospects if oil prices stay in the $75 to $80 range.
Terster

[JohnSP]

If WTI is range bound at USD75-85 my forecast for 2023: CORPORATE 1) CVE will close on Toledo 50% acquisition in Q1. 2) Another 1-2 bolt on acquisitions. 3) For all or 3/4 of 2023 100% vs current 50% of Excess Free Funds Flow will go to Share Buybacks and/or quarterly Variable Dividends, with increasingly less to buybacks as share price slowly climbs. SHARE PRICE Stock market will still be very

[Cabarete1]

Agreed with most of this, except if your prediction on 1-2 bolt on aquisitions happens, then it will mean less cash flow for dividend. I think that's a good thing for share price though.

[meritmat]

Ok let's look at positives  Transmountain comes online  The Refinery that burnt up is on in first qt  Low debt = less interest to pay.  I have no idea on share price.  Maybe 50??  I'm pulling a number out of the air.  Would love to see more share buy backs.  To many share outstanding  Have a great new years 

[JohnSP]

Thanks for thoughts, indeed any acquisitiom would leave less funds for Buybacks and Variable Dividends. I could see CVE buying more refineries from BP, ie Cherry Point in WA which is connected to TMX. I remember seeing something that HSE & CVE had nominated for significant volumes on TMX twining. Yep Superior @ 49k bopd & Toledo should both restart in Q1. Also Maduro high liquid gas

[vwbusman]

Cenovus bought and cancelled  2,887,100  shares in Dec at a purchase price around $26 so a total of ballpark $75 million returned to shareholders

[meritmat]

We're ya getting that info?  Thought it was not released till the 10th of next month 

[vwbusman]

its on sedi.com if you copy and paste the link below   https://ceo.ca/insiders/paul-andrew-dever then click on where is says "SEDI-CR" then remove CR and type in the stock ticker symbol you want - e.g. CVE

[Quintessential1]

I think you may be mistaking the filed date for the transaction date. I read it as 2 943 700 shares bought and cancelled in Novemebr and filed on Dec 9 2022. Total in dollars purchased was $76 592 159 so an average purchase price of $26.02 But I don't see December share buybacks on there. GLTA and Happy New Year!

[meritmat]

Thanks man 

[JohnSP]

Hold on, last two items total 2,887,100 shares, but actually three purchases dated 2022-Dec-9 which is the date filed, for each of those there is a second date in Nov of when that purchase was made, all three were in Nov. Dec's numbers whould be filed on Jan 9-10. Also, sometimes CVE buys back shares in US vs normal in Canada. When/if they do in a month they have in past recorded them last

[vwbusman]

Thats great - thanks for catching that - either way  - should be just a warm up for share purchasing and cancellation as this was all done when 50% of FCF was used for buybacks etc.  In 2023 it will be double that at 100% of FCF.

[vwbusman]

Held my nose and just bought some more today at just over $25 Cdn - hope the downdraft is short lived  

[Quintessential1]

Low share prices today,  I can only assume because of the drop in oil price and I attribute that to China's announcing increased export quotas.   Does anyone recall how many assets CVE still operates in China? I belive they picked them up in with Husky. TIA and GLTA

[Quintessential1]

It is kind of a weird reporting system as CVE shares are purchased and cancelled the same day leaving a zero balance the same day where as other companies will purchase for the entire month allowing the shares to tabulate up in the balance and then they cancel the entire months worth of shares purchesed on the last day before reporting and it gives you an easy total at the end.   In CVE&