Cenovus Energy Inc T.CVE

Analyst Recommendation

[retiredcf]

BUY

Cenovus Energy(CVE-T)

08/02/2024

 

With energy companies, you really have to be comfortable with commodity price and OPEC manipulation. Oil prices seem to have settled, nat gas prices soft. Compared to peers, it's cheaper, better production growth and cashflow growth. Pretty good deal here. Slower debt reduction is not of much concern with current oil price.

Oil / Gas

Greg Newman

$21.830

Unknown

[downwithdotcom1]

anyone seen analyst predictions/commentary going into Q4 results next week??? Please post.Thank-you. dwdc

[cashtango00]

I have seen 3-4 and all were pretty similar.  They call for about 1.00 CFPS for the quarter down from estimates of 1.30 a month or 2 ago.  upsteam running pretty well and US refining is the reason, yet again for a weaker quarter.  my bet is the weak downstream has been pretty much been worked into the stock.

[downwithdotcom1]

this is my point of contention..cashflow in the 3rd quater was $1.82 and street is now calling for only a $1 in Q4???? IMO has already reported and CF beat the street numbers that were only a little more than 10% below Q3 numbers..also of note, IMO is trading barely $3 or  less than 5% from its 52 week hi while CVE is down 30% ..what gives??? guess we will see thurs...thoughts?? dwdc

[cashtango00]

Q4  is always a weaker quarter and was projected a few months back at about 1.30 CFPS. It  is tough to compare CVE and IMO because CVE is having a lot of issues with US refining and q4 is no exception.  Earnings this week will spell it out, but given CVE gave some "colour" to analysts about a month ago, and most moved their estimates to about 1.00, i think its a fair bet

[downwithdotcom1]

CVE is having a lot of issues with US refining and q4 is no exception....what issues do you speak of??? In my opinion thats OLD NEWS, US downstream was up 26% in Q3 and appeared to be firing now on all cylinders. Yes, they have one PLANNED refinery partial outage for Q4 (around 50k bbls/day-or less than 10% of US refining capacity) but thats been on the books since the beginning of the year - most

[cashtango00]

If you think the US refining issues is old news, read some reports or wait until earnings.  every analyst is saying q4 refining was bad for CVE.  Thats the reason for the downgrade in CFPS that has occurred.  Most guidance is calling for just 80-85 m cashflow from downstream in q4 and 82% capacity run rates.   I'm not writing the reports, I'm just reading them.