TSX:CVE - Post Discussion
Post by
mrbb on May 02, 2023 8:34pm
HFI Research Prediction
From HFI Research
This is a prediction article, so there needs to be a disclaimer attached to this.
With that said, here are some of the predictions I will make for the rest of the year. I will spend some time going through these assumptions, and hopefully, we are at least directionally correct for you to profit.
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US oil demand will surprise to the upside. I see US oil demand surpassing an all-time high by this summer.
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US shale oil production growth velocity will materially decelerate by Q3. We are currently producing ~12.55 million b/d and will exit year-end around ~12.9 million b/d. Most of this growth will happen in Q3 with Q4 showing little to no growth.
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OPEC+ voluntary cut will show Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq follow through. Russia will show no change in production.
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Global oil inventories will accelerate to the downside starting in the second part of May. The physical oil market is to materially tighten towards the end of May and into June.
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We expect China to use its SPR starting in Q3 (July), which will dampen some of the inventory draws we see. This will keep oil prices rangebound between $85 to $95.
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Global oil demand is set to reach an all-time high by this summer fueled by China's reopening and emerging market demand growth.
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Energy sector consolidation with more and more companies looking to merge to gain scale.
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Inflation is expected to drop to low 4% range before rebounding into year-end due to higher energy prices.
My Predictions For The Rest Of 2023 - HFI Research (substack.com)
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