Calibre Mining Corp T.CXB

TD UPDATE

[Ridgeback]

THE TD COWEN INSIGHT Calibre reported Q1/24 gold production of 61.8koz, below our estimate of 65.8koz.

The company has reiterated is annual production guidance of 275koz-300koz. We believe the production miss compared to our estimate was largely due to higher production scheduled for H2/24, particularly as the Volcan deposit (near the Libertad mill) is planned to come online in Q4.

Impact: NEUTRAL Calibre reported production 61.8koz of gold in Q1/24, 6% below our estimate of 65.8koz. Production from Calibre's Nicaraguan operations was 55.0koz, largely in-line with our estimate of 55.4koz.

Pan produced 6.8koz gold, below our estimate of 10.4koz. Reasons for the weaker quarter at Pan were not provided; it was likely weather-related given the season, in our view.

Q1 financials will be released after market close on May 14. The conference call will be held on May 15 at 10:00 am ET.

As a reminder, we expect Calibre to release a full update on the Valentine development in the coming weeks, the first major update since the acquisition. As of Q4/23, we estimate that Calibre (pro-forma) had approximately C$150mm cash, C$245mm restricted cash (Sprott credit facility), with C$355mm remaining capex at Valentine.

We estimate total debt of ~C$356mm. After reporting Q4, the company announced a C$100mm bought deal (LINK) and US$60mm gold prepay (LINK).

Exhibit 1: Quarterly Operations Summary Source: TD Cowen, company reports Research analysts marked with ^ above are not associated persons of TD Securities (USA) LLC and are not registered as Research Analysts under FINRA rules. Research analysts registered solely with FINRA are not subject to CIRO disclosure requirements. Please see pages 3 to 7 of this report for important disclosures. TDSECURITIES.COM TD COWEN EQUITY RESEARCH Calibre Mining Corp. April 9, 2024 VALUATION METHODOLOGY AND RISKS Valuation Methodology Our valuation methodology may include two approaches: a relative value approach or an intrinsic value approach. Our relative value approach relies upon utilizing a blend of P/NAV and EV/EBITDA multiples, which we consider as the most relevant metrics. Our intrinsic value approach utilizes discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology as well as our sum-of-theparts NAV analysis, which values a company based on its mineral resources and selected balance sheet items. Mine plan, capital costs, and operating cost assumptions applied in our DCF are based on published technical reports, our best estimates using our experience and observations from other projects and information publicly disclosed by management. We make investment recommendations on certain early stage, pre-revenue companies based upon an assessment of their asset quality and upside potential, technology, probability of market success, and the potential market opportunity, balanced by an assessment of applicable risks. Such companies may not be assigned a price target
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Latley TD have changed how the report on companies. Not too impressed

[Bentouttashape]

Like i said. Nothing from management as to why Pan Mine only produced 6700 oz. You would think this would be something that needs to be reported, when production drops over 30% from the previous quarter.  

[zack50]

Pan produced 6.8koz gold, below the estimate of 10.4koz. Although reasons for the weaker quarter at Pan were not provided, it was stated... "likely weather-related, given the season". Fwiw, I can expand on that a little, for you... The Pan property is located within the rolling hills of the northern most portion of the Pancake Range, where elevation ranges from 6,400 to 7,500 ft above

[Bentouttashape]

Thanks for the climate update but I,m not buying what  ur selling. If what you say may be correct, why isn,t Calibre delivering that news and what would you attribute the prior 4 or 5 quarters of diminishing production quarter over quarter. I have no problem standing behind my statements. This was (is) a lousy acquisition.  the same people who thing Pan mine a good buy also think

[zack50]

FYI, I'm not selling anything. Now, since you were not too keen on my climate update, here's a few more possible reasons for the reduced production... * the necessity to enhance the heap leach pad performance. * revaluation of the target blend of 60:40 (hard/soft) based on the mine plan. * mining contractor... scheduling, staff shortages, etc. * demand for skilled and technical labour

[karead]

So far, the late 2021 Fiore acquisition has in fact been a bit of a dud. The original news release stated an anticipated 50,000 ounces per year. 2022 turned out to be 41,509 and in 2023 was 41,385. They have guided 2024 to be between 40,000 to 45,000, despite Q1 production being way low, at 6,760 ounces, with no explanation from the company as to the big drop. Interestingly, an old Fiore news

[habsguy]

Totally awesome Zack....very good break down....LMFAO......made my morning...

[Ridgeback]

Zack you missed one item? Manson was on the BOD so a slight relaps owing to the lag of the M.M. effect which should now pass just as the eclipse. A brief darkenss before the sunshines again.

[DaveinNL8]

Manson? Who is this Manson?