Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

Adjusted EBITDA

[puma1]

I can't figure something out here when trying to bridge the Q3 results with 2016. they posted $71 m or so and with the 50 m shares we get the $1.46 or so a share: that is the easy part................................ so go to the 2016 guidance of adjusted ebitda of $650 m average for the year and that kicks out adjusted Q'tly ebitda of some $160 m and with the 50 m shares should produce an adjusted $3.20 a share - annualize that and we have about $12.80 per share but the annual guidance etc etc is all about $6.85 a share and that is from the company and the analysts??????????????? this should be pretty simple?

[puma1]

ok - just double checked and the RBC $6.85 I was looking at was cash EPS................................... anyway, this is still producing and adjusted ebitda of more than $3 a qtr and frankly I have not seen anyone in the reporting discuss these kinds of numbers. no one has reported that the Q4 should be more than 150% pop from here and Q1 2016 would be double the Q3. they have used these

[argentia77]

They used adjusted net income to estimate 2016 adjusted EPS, not adjusted EBITDA. Preliminary Guidance for 20163  Adjusted EBITDA2 of $610 million to $640 million. Adjusted net income2 of $330 million to $355 million; adjusted EPS2,4 of $6.29 to $6.77.

[puma1]

thx AG------ I didn't see that guidance reference but I saw that later in the RBC report- speaking of that RBC report, you really also need to go to their prelim report that came out November 10th............................... it has a full page chart breaking down the calculations and really defines the terms derived via numbers.

[puma1]

the crazy part of that metric they are using is that it will be seriously effected by the declining interest costs as the debt goes down. they won't take much debt off the table in 2016 due to the performance payment coming out of cash flow but they should be able to wack $300 m plus in 2017 and 2018 which would alone add over a $1 a share into their calculations on a forward basis and that is