So what are the expectations for CXR in the next few years?
Simply put, the analysts demand that CXR delivers, and uses every penny of it's free cash to pay down it's debt. Performance through debt reduction seems to be the only thesis conveyed by the analysts on how to improve the SP.
Concordia has tried that, when they put 45M toward debt and the SP went even lower. Obviously performing to your expectations is not being rewarded. So then why listen to those pundits? Why spend the next five years throwing every dollar toward debt, improving the debt to revenue ratio.
Why not attack it from the other end... The revenue end.
Consider this.
Pay only the debt that is due and save every dollar of your free cash. Use that cash to take advantage of opportunities. With the deeply depressed prices, there are lots of molecules at bargain basement prices.
With $360 million annual free cash @ high single digit growth of 8%, CXR could have a war chest in excess of 2,280 Billion in 5 years. Deploying that kind of money into opportunities, in 5 years CXR could easily bring in additional revenue of $500-$800 million annually. At the same time current revenue of 1.05 billion, with yearly growth of 8% would amount to over $1.54 billion annually.
So why should Thompson listen to all the analysts? In taking a contrarian view, in five years CXR could easily exceed 2 billion in revenue or more than double of today's numbers.
Suddenly you've doubled your growth and reduced your debt ratio that everyone was concerned about. That route will be rewarded, because you've created growth and made the existing debt a non issue.
So save your money Concordia!!!
Don't use it on debt but rather on growth. Nobody rewards you for being debt free. Investors want a responsible growth story. That's how you do it. That's how you increase your Share Price.
That's my opinion.