Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

Q1 EPS estimate worksheet

[Stockcoach1]

cg16 wrote:
Did Mark actually give guidance for Q1? I only remember seeing $6.29-$6.77 EPS/ $1.02B-$1.06B for full year 2016.
Ridgeway lowered to $1.40 for Q1 and his last report said that concensus is $1.33.
Does anyone have a number from Mark for Q1? CXR did $1.24 in Q4. if Amco revenune only counted 71/90 days of the 4th quarter, does it mean the business only needs to be flat from Q4 to Q1 and it will do $1.33? is my math correct?

 

 

 

 

You are correct. MT only guided a full year and not quarter by quarter. But there is a way to extrapolate Q4 results to arrive at a Q1 EPS.

 

Here is my take.

 

Since AMCo comprises roughly 60% of the total EPS of $1.24, AMCo's EPS represents .744 cents.

 

Since the .744 cents represent 72 days, we cross multiply to extrapolate 92 days.

 

.744 x 92= 68.448

Now divide by 72

68.448 / 72= .95 

 

So the AMCo's extrapolated EPS for (full 3 months) 92 days is $.95 cents.

 

Now we subtract the .774 cents (representing 72 days) of AMCo from the Q4 EPS of $1.24, and substitute the extrapolated  $.95 cents.

 

1.24 - .744 = .496

 

.496 + .95 = $1.446

 

So the extrapolated EPS for the full Q1 should fall around $1.44 - $1.45.

 

This exceeds all analysts consensus of $1.33

 

Hope you follow my math.

 

[Pj1958]

Your math is right on....I guess the only unknown here is the FX , and that may be why the concensus is $1.33. The Fx has been trending in CXR's favour lately....but we are talking Q1 here , and the British pound was weaker then.          You are correct. MT only guided a full year and not quarter by quarter. But there is a way to extrapolate Q4 results

[Stockcoach1]

[/quote] Thanks PJ. As the guys in the CC mentioned the FX should works itself out in the wash. The US dollar was booming in Q1 and they get 40% in USD. That should offset the € denominated cost and help with the £ denominated debt. I guess the slimy shorts didn't like my math with a $1.44 EPS ....hence the 1/2 star. Haha

[adamchess]

Thanks for the math. It looks good. Only question I have is: shouldn't the 1st qtr US results be better than the 4th qtr 2015 results? Maybe AMCo will do better also quarter over quarter? Cheers. Thanks PJ. As the guys in the CC mentioned the FX should works itself out in the wash. The US dollar was booming in Q1 and they get 40% in USD. That should offset the € denominated cost and help

[Stockcoach1]

Adam, that migh be the surprise. After all you don't get to $6.40 annual EPS earning with 1.45 / Q. There has to be some growth along the way. [/quote]

[sunshine7]

Once the Donatal marketing drive kicks in and reasonable price increases are introduced, it is quite conceivable to finish the year at guidance IMO. Add to that a accretive tuck in using COH and voila!

[cg16]

I personally do not expect US sales to be alot better in Q1 based on what I heard on CC. I expect it back inline in Q2. I expect Amco to perform similar as Q4 but with full contribution, and I expect that EPS will bulge up after acquisition costs are gone and US sales normalize. 

[cg16]

yes I follow. thanks for the confirmation. its the same math I did only I estimated amco percentage abit lower and had 70/90 days of contribution last quarter. I won't argue that the market has the Share valued at  EPS $3 CDN . I just don't understand why such a large discrepancy from what the analysts and forecast are. Even if every headwind and risk listed by Lattice hits, it will

[Pj1958]

Acker is on Psychadelic drugs.....His 2016 eps is $3.00 CAD that's 1/3 of the guidance of $8.50 CAD. He is either delusional or his EPS is British pounds LOL.

[Stockcoach1]

Don't listen to Lettuce. I heard there is a health recall due to salmonella in the Lettuce Head.