Post by
taxman26 on Apr 26, 2016 4:32pm
Please stop acting like frightened children
One week ago this stock was $10 cad lower, if you think there is no deal, sell it and count your blessings. If fact, short it because the price will fall, given that outcome.
However, if you believe the company to be in negotiations with another entity then one must accept that these parties are not wasting each others resources. If the bid was to be $45 cad I have to suspect the committee would not be meeting, as that is essentially what the stock was trading at upon initiation of the committee. So, one would conclude that any bid is higher than $45 cad.
What some of you have not comprehended is that an entity, Blackstone, is dedicating time and valuable resources to present an offer and negotiate the purchase of this company. They would not waste the effort for certain rejection, it is counterproductive.
The price has to be in a range the company is amenable to for negotiations to initiate. Blackstone was not rebuffed upon approach to CXR otherwise the talks would not continue. Blackstone could just make an unsolicited bid at a lower price, to whatever result.
So, we know the price is going to be to the committees acceptance because this is not a distressed sale, merely an opportune one. My guess is $82 cad. It could be higher if multiple buyers are involved. Think multiple house bidders, but I doubt that is going to happen.
The current trading action tells me there is a deal done or close to done, and the daily stock movement is controlled to frustrate short sellers. Longs have seen been lower so are likely to continue to hold, especially if no more loss. Shorts are trying to double-down or initiate, the action looks to burn them, in my opinion.
So stop worrying worst case you got a respite from the drop.
Comment by
Roller007 on Apr 26, 2016 5:12pm
Taxman: my thoughts exactly. Well said.
Comment by
sunshine7 on Apr 26, 2016 6:44pm
and who in your opinion is opposing the shorts at this time? Mighty strange that 2 days now this is ending exactly flat in the midst of a short attack.
Comment by
sunshine7 on Apr 26, 2016 8:41pm
Taxman, I agree with your hypothesis, but who is doing the pinning? Shorts are trying to walk it down only to meet another trying to work it back to 41. So who is doing that?
Comment by
nobagel1 on Apr 26, 2016 10:10pm
Orchestrated how, by what party and for what purpose? Pinning is an options trading phenomena that, even if were possible to implemet in this scenario, would serve neither CXR nor its acquirer. That said, I am all eyes and looking forward to your explanation, fanicful or otherwise.