Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

If no deal there

[puma1]

if nothing comes of this speculaiton, then the floor will imo be set by the price Cinven gets for the sale of their bloc which i suspect is closer to the spike price post announcement   ----- more in the $US 30 to  $US40 range.

why would they sell low - because they probably marked it down at the end of 2015 to the closing price of around $US 40 and used the loss against the huge gain they made on the sale transaction.

on a go forward basis their cost then isn't $US80 plus it is likely half that so you have to look at their exit price relative to the market trading. getting $US35 on a stock that was basing in the low $US20's is still good from their perspective imo.

if we get a go forward floor into the mid point of $US 35 then i am ok holding as the 12 to 18 month horizon looks good here for a double over that floor.

[Expereo]

Puma1. From an accounting perspective Cinven cannot "mark down" their investment in CXR and apply that to the gain they made on the sale. UK accounting would require them to crystallize the gain which would require the shares to be sold in an arms length transaction.  That trade never happened. also keep in mind that Cinven are pretty shrewd investors too. They took back shares

[puma1]

 Expereo - i think you meant to say "from a tax perpspective" in which case  i would agree with your comments if the VTB shares were taken back as capital property but  it seems like a hard stretch not to consider them trading inventory to Cinven and hence the tax writedown would be ok. but to your point as written, if you meant to say "accounting

[Expereo]

You are correct. I meant to say from a tax perspective. I rather doubt that they would panic and start selling stock in a deal that only closed in q4 just to crystallize losses against gains from the sale. PE firms don't generally trade around positions. They are typically all in or all out when it comes to their investments. In fact most PE firms don't even have a trading desk which is