Post by
Endboss77 on Aug 01, 2016 12:47pm
Financials and simple math
Lattice and her shorty friends, word things in ways to deceive and distort facts, Concordia is an easy target considering the underperformance, comparisons to Valient, the Clinton war on pharma
For your average investor the above is enough to sell shares, tuck your tail and run.
for the astute investor the above creates a buying opportunity of the ages...we only get a few of these a decade.
where a segment is so very badly bruised and beaten and everyone hates it, even fund managers second guess and question their own investment thesis.
the time to buy Concordia has indeed arrived, let the numbers and growth do the talking, Q2will be more than fine as was Q1
fun facts:
cash on hand
Q4 155 million
Q1 178 million
Q2?
debt reduction Q1? 25 million
amazing really? That cash went up, debt went down while paying 50 million of the 206 million left for 2016's final payments for Amco.AND 21 million euro spent on four new generic drugs,
does the the above sound like a sinking ship? I think not
CXR pays a dividend...one of the small few that does
brass tax:
Q1 Revenues up 19%!! Over Q4 not down as lattice would have you believe
revenue $228 million and profit margins of 73%
launched 10 new drugs in the quarter and 50 more to go over the next 36 months
but wait...no growth here folks, LOL
do we have debt? Of course! Every publicly traded company that wants growth has debt, you think transcanada pipeline and enbridge fund pipelines with cash? Give me a break.
the amco acquisition will be fully paid from cash flows this year, then in 2017 the cash coming in will really start to take down that debt...
this is is shaping up as a spectacular buy, short term pain with some very serious long term game...should we get taken out along the way? Perhaps but long term that will not matter
one more thing? I've seen the question of why insiders have not purchased, you have to know that so long as they are in talks with Apollo etc and in the review process there is NO way insiders can purchase then have a buy out...they would be headed to jail.
GLTA
boss
Comment by
LatticeInExiIe on Aug 01, 2016 1:57pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by
wallop13 on Aug 01, 2016 2:54pm
Fact - Could easily be bought out. Enterprise value is 7.5x EBITDA. PRGO trades at over 13x. A year ago they traded at 23x. Sector is sour right now. Fact - Half the account receivables came from AMCO. But hey, maybe they were stuffing too. Fact - Reformulations might not be exciting, but adding 40M a year to revenue doesn't hurt.
Comment by
wallop13 on Aug 01, 2016 3:40pm
Just for perspective, I calculated what CXR would trade at if the multiple was 13x (same as PRGO). At 13x I calculate 100.79 CAD a share. Pretty crazy. Targets are being pulled from a hat at this point.