Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

Great Value

[greatplay]

With all the noise, you still can see current company's value, let's break it.

In March 2015, before big acquisitions, company was worth around $40 US a share which brings around 2 BLN value for the company, no big debt.

Acquisition list
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concordia_Healthcare

Since then, 
March 2015 - Covis $3.5 BLN
September 2015 - Amdipharm - $1.2 BLN


Per latest fool:
One of its largest acquisitions, Amdipharm Mercury Ltd. for US$3.5 billion, gave it access to over 100 countries–something the company didn’t have before. And it also bought and integrated 18 products that it acquired from Covis Pharmaceutical for $1.2 billion.

https://www.fool.ca/2016/08/26/is-concordia-international-corp-a-smart-buy-at-these-prices/


Current cash metrics:
DEBT: 3.26BLN
Market Cap: 450MLN
Cash on hand: 145MLN
Write-off/Adjustment: 567MLN

Bottom line:
Adding up cash to market cap brings to current vlaue of $650 MLN;
Value was 2 BLN before acquisitions
Then we have acquisitions 3.5 + 1.2 bln = 4.7BLN

So, without write-off value should be 4.7 + 2 BLN = 6.7 BLN

Current value: 3.26 BLN - 650MLN = 2,6 BLN

Summary:
Yes! company overpiad for companies that it bought, it's a fact, yes they did a write-off, but all of these went on shoulders of investors who bought it at $40-50 and not who is buying now.

6.7 BLN - 2.6 BLN - 550MLN = 3.6BLN

3.6 BLN that's how much company is underpreciated, let's say even half of that, sting brings us to 1.8Bln and that's brings to $25-35 level per share.

No wonder Blackstone, Apollo and other were interested to buy it at that level!!!!

Market will lead to right value either thru moving share up or buy somebody coming along

[puma1]

I get to a close number but a little differently. all US$ 1) the market cap was $2 billion in the spring of 2016 based on the value attached by Blackstone . 2) reduce this by $500 million for the writedown and we are at $1.5 billion. 3) reduce again by 20% for the UK currency wind downs. this gives a market cap of some $1.2 billion or about $US 23 a share. we have hedge funds with more than 25% of

[greatplay]

You are going on estimations that doesn't take in account a fact that one of the large acqusitions wasn't pure buy with cash, but rather cash and shares; Shares were expensive. So, it means the big purchase, is not as it big as it was in $'s, so Concordia paid less, that's why you have $3.26 BLN in debt and not $4.7BLN; Plus you don't take account that company continues to

[greatplay]

I would like to add that difference in simple words: (all in USD); it leads to bigger share price 4.7 BLN (2 big acquisitions) - 3.26 BLN (current deb) = 1.5 BLN 1.5 BLN - 0.5 BLN (write-off/adjustment this month) = 1 BLN Value at March 2015 (before acquisitions) - 2 BLN Current stock value: 450 MLN 2 BLN - 450 MLN = 1.55 BLN + 145 mln on hand = 2 BLN 2 + 1 = 3 BLN Considering the company

[PROtrading]

Great post Puma1 !  God it nice to see traders with some brains here.  We still have shorties trying to drive this lower but there are no more sellers!  All gone!  No volume! These shorties are going to have to get on their knees to pray but all they are doing here is playing with themselves and all their aliases!  Sick!  But funny if you know how to read these

[wallop13]

That's not really an accurate way to calculate the change in value. If you are using an old valuation and making adjustments then you should use enterprise value (debt plus market cap). Enterprise value would have been 5.3B in spring, so the 20% revision in EBITDA would have a 1.06B impact to enterprise value. That puts enterprise value at 4.24B, deduct the 3.3B debt and you're left with

[greatplay]

Exactly... It's easier to see what was in March 2015; how much was spent on equisitions, what's current debt and cash on hand, how much was written off and what's the current share price. With basic math of adding and subtracting we come to an accurate number On lower end it's $25 and higher end toward $45 I believe it happens because 2 parties were screwed: companies that

[wallop13]

Keep in mind that had a buyout premium on it. That was not the normal trading price.

[greatplay]

That's why I had conservative and bullish number Again... $40 - share price in March 2015 (before buyouts) - Puts Concordia at $2 BLN USD cap Company spent $4.7 BLN to buy other businesses Currently it's worth $450 mln (stock) + $150 mln (cash); 3.2 BLN debt Let's say 4.7 BLN had premium - 20%; but don't forget company written off already 550MLN from the acquisitions 3.76 BLN

[LaticelnExile]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[greatplay]

Northing to say against numbers It's bear trap, sell will exaust and one day stock will open few bucks up, for no reason whatsoever, I've seen it