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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

TSX:CXR.R - Post Discussion

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Post by oexel on Sep 10, 2016 3:21pm

Q2 Numbers

I was trying to reevaluate my long position last night so I decided to comb through Q2 financials again. Impairment aside, the company lost 8M. During the same Q, there was a one time legal expense of 13M and of course 3.5M for the dividend.  Assuming revenues stay flat, and no one time expenses, that nets 8.5M profit all things equal.  Not sure what the legal fees for dealing with all these future lawsuits is gonna cost.

 

Now, the paragraph below taken from Q2 2015, implies Donnatal revenue was at most (52.9 - 38.7) =  14.2M.  That's asuming Zonegran revenue equaled the revenue declines mentioned.  Q2 2016 saw Donnatal sales decline 33% which implies that for Q2 2016, Donnatal accounted for at most, 9.5M revenue.  Applying the 77% gross margin, that translates to 7.3M proft generated in Q2 by Donnatal.  So even if Donnatal sales were to decline, say 20% q over q, that would allow the company to put 7M in the bank.

Legacy Pharmaceuticals Division revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2015 was $72.4 million, compared to $19.5 million in the same quarter of the prior year, an increase of $52.9 million. The addition of the Portfolio acquired from Covis on April 21, 2015 drove an increase in revenue of approximately $38.7 million. The remainder of the increase over the prior year is driven by the addition of Donnatal® and Zonegran®, partially offset by revenue declines in Kapvay®, Orapred® and Ulesfia®. The second quarter of 2014 included a half quarter of Donnatal® revenue. Zonegran® was acquired at the end of the third quarter of 2014. 

Now there are obvsiously a host of problems with Concordia and the only reason I even got trapped in this garbage is becasue I was making a killing selling call options for $1.50 a piece, beieving I could continue to do that if the shares dropped but then the premiums disappeared.  I just dont see how they can go flat out broke though, for at least several quarters given their cash and cash equivalents of about 300M, and their revolver.
Comment by Craigbad on Sep 10, 2016 5:06pm
You look like your questioning if they can survive.....maybe, if EVERYTHING goes right and there are no more cockroaches. Can they thrive, grow earnings to attract new money to make you money is the question. Lets say they make it to 2021 when the debt comes due, will they have made enough to pay down a big chunk of it? They issued debt in good times at 8.5% and that debt is now trading at around ...more  
Comment by Lumberfeverlong on Sep 10, 2016 8:37pm
Craigbad, first let me address the inaccuracies in your post. Weighted average interest rate on the debt is 7.25% and not 8.5%.  Both the shares and the debt are not trading at levels which have any connection with the earnings potential and future cash flow of this business.  I grant that much of the disconnect isattrobutable to very poor IR and disclosure by the company in recent ...more  
Comment by LaticelnExile on Sep 10, 2016 9:33pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by oexel on Sep 10, 2016 9:45pm
To be fair, Craigbad, does make a valid point.  Management either has no visibility into the compotetive landscape or has purposely misled investors.  Either way, that's going to create a disconnect between earnings/cashflow/multiple and the stock price.  The market tries to price into the future and it extrapolates between what was promised in the past and what was actually ...more  
Comment by Lemerson on Sep 10, 2016 10:06pm
Here is a breakdown of the debt: https://www.passive-income-earner.com/2016/deciphering-debt-concordia-healthcare-corp/
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