Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

Cinven payment = Amco Performance

[cg16]

Its difficult to follow script data accurately on Amco. But if the Cinven earnout payment is tied to performance, wouldn't having to pay it be the best indication that scripts are fine? There's no worry that CXR has the money to pay the December payment (I think everyone can agree to that), so for me, its whether or not they actually have to pay it that matters most. Lots coming down at this next Quarterly report it seems.

[Lumberfeverlong]

Great point. Yes having to make the Cinven payments is a good indication of positive performance of the Amco portfolio.

[cg16]

I try to follow RBC's reports on US scripts, but need to see Q3 reported to see if the write down was appropriate (some analysts question if it was too big and Shorts believe it was too little). It does seem that Donnatal is holding at 1.65% share. It makes sense that it won't erode much further because its only 1.65% of the patients that can't live without it. Not sure its worth it to

[LaticelnExile]

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[LaticelnExile]

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[GOODNEWZ]

The international revenues continue to be very strong.   Don't trust fabrications from these US-based short bashers using boiler room tricks to fool investors. The CEO will start buying here at these lows and this stock will take off!

[cg16]

Lat, thanks for the info but I'm not following you? Are you saying that CXR will not have to make the payment because of significant drop in sales in Q3 ("after June")? Or are you saying that even though sales are significantly hampered in Q3, the performance threshold is still reached and payment will occur?

[LaticelnExile]

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[Craigbad]

Another theory is there was channel stuffing in the UK. If the numbers were met to trigger the earnout, they should have had the cashflow to make the payment. If the product was stuffed in channels the cashflow wouldn't be there. Why else would they issue high interest notes to pay high interest debt? When you take Goldman and Greenhills cut out of the $350 million the interest rate is much

[cg16]

Just want to clarify: Craig, your new theory is that CXR stuffed the UK channel so they would have to make a payment that they really shouldn't owe? Why would they do that? I would be surprised if management was still looking to convert the Cinven payment to equity at the recent prices. That would mean 20-30 million new shares for the sake of a $180m payment? Thats more desperate than the