Post by
ryehigh2014 on Oct 17, 2016 10:11am
Taking it in the Chin
Market seems to be pricing in bad earning expectations or something might have leaked.
Note: I am a bull
Comment by
borrowedlife on Oct 17, 2016 10:13am
Rye..when is the earnings report coming out?
Comment by
LaticelnExile on Oct 17, 2016 10:40am
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Comment by
PROtrading on Oct 17, 2016 10:45am
See, that's why I'm in love with Latice. Provide valuable information for anyone really intererest in pharma. "Verita via Symphony" But WTF is "LU"? And what about Delerium? That's the drug all these longs have been taking like crazy!? Sales must be right through the FREAKING ROOF!!!!
Comment by
cg16 on Oct 17, 2016 11:15am
Is Zonegram the same as Zonegran?
Comment by
puma1 on Oct 17, 2016 10:21am
the Pound is getting slaughtered, the Democrats look to take more than the Whitehouse and MGMT just sold off $350 million of the common shareholders equity to the bond market stripping out what little equity might have been attributable to the commons. .............. Nothing else needs to be said imo
Comment by
ryehigh2014 on Oct 17, 2016 10:54am
Yup I understand what your saying. But to get equity value from EV you add back Cash and other non-core assets and NOLs. It is definitely more complicated. Anyways your original point still stands. If you use an 8x multiple it doesnt justify a 4$ USD share price - its substantially higher.
Comment by
Craigbad on Oct 17, 2016 11:00am
That goes back to management performance. They deserve the lowest multiple possible in peer group for bad guidance, lack of clarity, regulatory headwinds and higher than normal interest actually eating up ebitda which most other companies don't have. When I said the notes would reduce analyst targets in the $2-3 range the pumpers attacked, but it was based on numbers, not fantasy.
Comment by
Craigbad on Oct 17, 2016 11:30am
Rbc has yet to update the new notes into their price target. Realistically they should be lowering their muliple and adding in additional debt, all of which should come out of their target price. It will be interesting to see how far they slash, although they have been the worst by far so far.
Comment by
puma1 on Oct 17, 2016 11:13am
you cannot use an 8 times multiple here with the lack of visibility on the numbers - if they can deliver 4 qtr.'s of solid numbers and no surprises you could start getting closer but pointless right now
Comment by
Craigbad on Oct 17, 2016 10:29am
There has been a long squeeze ever since Q2. When debt to ebitda target went to 6.4 it squeezed out most conventional funds. The new notes now drive it over 7 and totally screwed value managers who took a stab at it. They wont be re-entering anytime soon imo. Thats why short interest coming down, its playing out better than expected due to managements actions.
Comment by
ryehigh2014 on Oct 17, 2016 10:35am
Well yeah Looking at Debt/Ebitda alone you get around 7.8. Net Debt/Ebitda you get around 6.78. I'm forecasting EBITDA of 450MM and NOT the Adj EBITDA of 500-550MM range management provided. I actually HATE adjusted EBITDA - it is a dumb dumb metric. This is why I say this company needs to show stable revenue and continuous +ve FCF.
Comment by
marcrobert on Oct 17, 2016 10:46am
OK, so assuming we aren't looking at restructure risk any time soon, is anybody averaging down at this level?