Post by
Longvalue on Jun 09, 2022 11:23am
My thoughts after being a long-time shareholder
Ive held Dream for almost 10 years (first nibbled in 2013, added significant chunks in 2014, 2015 and 2016). My average price, without adjusting for ROC is about $20. Adjusted for ROC, im probably at about $10-15/share.
I recently sold 80% of my stake, I have kept the remaining 20% because its always tough to totally let go. But, my recommendation to the long-time holders who have made their money on Dream is to sell.
Dream has done everything right since the initial crash in 2013 (remember the tapper-tantrum which lopped of 25% of the value overnight - it went from $40 to $30). Even after the oil crash of 2014, Dream Management re-positioned and sold most of their Alberta exposure, bought back shares and focused on Toronto. Things were looking great, vacancies were low in Toronto and rent's increasing dramatically, then Covid hit and the paradigm changed.
Now were in a rising rate environment (bad for reits), popping of the housing bubble (dont think it wont spill over to office real estate), a shift to work from home and likely a recession on-top of stagflation. No matter what management does there are serious headwinds that you should not overlook.
My honest advice to the longs that have held and made money is to sell. I dont think we'll see $40 again.
Best of luck to everybody else.
Comment by
SNAKEYBOY on Jun 09, 2022 12:20pm
Once inflation slows or stops, REITS will go back up, fed will pause. 10 year will be stuck below 3%, return to the office is arleady underway
Comment by
SNAKEYBOY on Jun 09, 2022 2:15pm
Well I am not one to believe rates will go to 4-5%. That would be a death nail to the economy and cause a depression so the flock to the treasury will happen an 10 year yield will go to 2-2.5%. I think we hover around these levels for a few months at least