Post by
petebrown1963 on Nov 18, 2020 9:58pm
CIBC upside scenario
In my experience, the banks are conservative in their forecasts and all Canadian tech has basically achieved 'upside scenario' targets in the past 5 years except for the transient Covid crash.
Company Profile Docebo, Inc. provides cloud-based learning management systems (LMS). Its cloud platform consists of three modules: Docebo Learn, Docebo Coach & Share and Docebo Extended Enterprise.
Investment Thesis 1) Large and growing total addressable market 2) We expect 40% subscription revenue growth 3) Capital-efficient growth
Price Target (Base Case): C$69.00 We calculate our price target based on 30% subscription revenue growth in 2022E and a 12.0x EV/Sales multiple
Upside Scenario: C$87.00 Our upside scenario is based on 40% total growth in 2022E and a 16.0x EV/Sales Multiple
Downside Scenario: C$49.00 Our downside scenario is based on 20% total growth in 2022E and a 9.0x EV/Sales Multiple
Comment by
canyousayiii on Nov 19, 2020 11:32am
I prefer the scenario where targets are consistently met versus the feel-good double target that remains unchanged for years because it still has not been met.
Comment by
petebrown1963 on Nov 20, 2020 2:15am
The interesting point is that 40% revenue growth and 16X p/s are easily achievable on current trend, in fact both metrics were surpassed in this recent quarter. And this is the criteria behind "upside" scenario. I'm not sure what is feel-good about that.