Dividend Growth Split Corp T.DGS

Not convinced there's a recession next year

[EdPaquette]

Every talking head says recession, but I'm not sure.  For all the gloom and doom about an impending recession in 2023 (which still seems eminently reasonable), the US economy is not yet slowing as many would expect. Americans are still trudging along, and consumer spending is proving largely resilient.

[ehud42]

How does the housing / mortgage trend look? Anecdotally I'm hearing from friends and seeing posts in general forums that some people are not able to handle the rate increases as their terms come due. I don't think we are 2008 bad, but there are folks contemplating selling because they can't afford the new payments. That will put more pressure on the real estate market. Groceries, etc

[flamingogold]

Real estate buyers from the last 3 years over extended themselves. Pure FOMO. Where are the agents and famous brother-in-law specuvestors now who claim "real estate never goes down". The FED may pause (and we will follow too) in the first half of next year, but I will not be surprised to see rates continue their uptrend in the 2nd half of 2023. Real estate needs to come down another 25%

[mouserman]

Statistics dont always tell the story. Consumer spending in terms of dollars spent is proving resilient, but in reality they are spending the same amount and getting a lot less. Interest rate increases , along with high food and energy prices are all out war on the working class. Many of whom have credit cards maxxed out just to keep their heads above water. Add those payments into the mix

[itsthehitman]

Mouserman...well said...the debt issue per capita in North America is what I believe can cripple us longer term. that  said...if consumers stop buying we are in a dilemma as well. who knows the solution to an ongoing financial disaster. Like the old c s n song stated....teach your children well....my God.....that song was from the sixties.  Glta

[mouserman]

The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, Dec. 21, edition that retail spending in Canada showed early signs of a slowdown just as the holiday shopping season ramped up this fall, said Statistics Canada on Tuesday. A Canadian Press dispatch to The Globe reports that Statscan said preliminary numbers for November suggest a pullback in retail sales. The reading came as higher prices for basics

[EdPaquette]

Those heading out on the road for the holidays will receive the gift they’ve been waiting for all year: lower gas prices. Holiday prices this year will be$1.83per gallon lower than they were just six months ago, according to GasBuddy, the leading fuel savings platform saving North American drivers the most money on fuel. The national average price of gas is forecast to be $2.98 on Christmas Day

[flamingogold]

When oil hit $120 back in the Spring (just when the FED started it's fight on inflation), the "experts" and crude bulls were calling for $200-$300+/barrel. Instead, it's finishing the year 40% lower. Today, an hour never goes by in the media where you hear about the impending severe recession that is coming. We may see a mild shallow recession, but no skull crushing recession

[mouserman]

SO have diesel prices come down that much as well? I am in Mexico  , so cant really keep up with the inflation numbers in Canada or the US... Gas prices are NOT  a really big driver of inflation compared to diesel.

[mouserman]

By the way the cheapest price i got for regular gas on the way to Mexico was in Arizona in late NOVEMBER @ $3.21 USD  for the smaller gallon down here. (3.78 litres)

[Kadiddelhopper]

That's 85 cents a liter U.S....here on Vanc Island @ $1.529 Cdn...and so and more Carbon Tax in April and an addt.l 13 cent Carbon Tax newly levied in Sept next.... ....no wonder that people go away on holidays at least!..Joyeux Noel, All !

[flamingogold]

This is a handy conversion tool I use when on a road trip down south... US$/gallon to CAD$/litre gas price converter https://usgas.ca/

[flamingogold]

Inflation remains sticky in certain sectors.. food (diesel and Ukraine war) and wages being the most stubborn and likely the last to fall. I believe we will see a bump up in layoffs in Q1-Q2 of the new year that may help push the jobless rate to +4%. This will trickle down and may lower wage growth. A win for the FED and maybe enough for a rate pause. But Russia's invasion ot Ukraine is

[mouserman]

https://oilpricez.com/ca/canada-diesel-price Average price of diesel in Canada  $2.07 litre. CAD$ Yup , really getting inflation under control.  As far as i know, 99% of all goods, necessities ( food) are delivered by diesel. Cost of 1 litre of diesel in the US ? $1.25 USD ( $1.70 ) CAD Mexico 1 litre of diesel = $1.63 CAD Thailand 1 litre of diesel= $1.35 CAD China /Japan = $1.34 CAD

[itsthehitman]

After all the bank rate increases....we still are at 7% inflation......we need to make 12 to 15% on our investments to get ahead of the inflationary curve. where to run to in the new year?

[Kadiddelhopper]

to the only game left on the Streets of Canada, the Big 6 ...is where....complicit with the Reserve Banksters, its the Big Banks , in Canada, U.S., U.K, and around the World who hold the cards, while driving exhorbitant Inflation, and lining their Balance Sheets as never before....., oh, not true....happened in the 80,s ...remember it well, friends leaving the house keys on the kitchen table!

[EdPaquette]

Inverse head and shoulders pattern now visible in tsx, s&p500, and zeb.  Left shoulder July 15th,  head October 5th, and right shoulder  right now.

[flamingogold]

I think the central bankers will successfully get inflation down to 4% with the current terminal rate. But, that's when it hits a wall. Wage and food inflation will remain stubbornly high. So, best to target for returns in the +6% range and go up from there depending on your appetitie for risk/reward.

[Kadiddelhopper]

Would be interesting to compare inflation of the World War years, when food was heavily rationed, and the Workers had either gone to war, leaving a worker shortage all the while  Manufacturers were on war-time mfg orders for equipment and artillery support weaponry. Expoecting to return to 2% during a warring period seems somewhat unrealistic, in my view.