ADF Group Inc T.DRX

EPS of $4.35 / share

[lifeisgood1010]

I was told by management that two of the main reason why Lilly like ADF is

They can produce QUALITY steel on a massive and TIMELY BASIS.
Lilly is making tens of billion $ of profit and are on a massive investment
program for their GLP1 products.

They do not want any construction delays.

We know were this advantage comes from(The Zebeau line).

Now, i took the time to do dirty and quick calculations of the yearly EPS if they do once
again win the 2 phases3 announcement.

YTD, net profit margins are at 17%.Just because of the fixed cost being spread on much higher sales and that much of the Lilly contracts are done on the Zebau line, we would see NPM at more than 20%.

If they win the next phase, my 20% is probably way, way to low.

On Yearly sales of 650 millions,this get me at EPS of at least $4.35

Obviously by reading recent posts,we have many frustrated investors that bought
at higher prices.

I can understand the frustration of these investors.

That being said, usually these investors will sell at their break even cost.

So, we will need time to get DRX back on a positive slope.

But make no mistake, these sellers will eventually get exhausted and they will be replaced
by stronger hands investors.

Like i wrote previously, these massive contracts need time before being handed out.
They need to be design and much planning needs to be done before negociation begins and 
contrat signing.

If i am right, we could have a big announcement between next February and next June.

By that time we should have a all new slate of investors.

If ADF does win phase 3, then we will hit EPS way north of $4.35 and this recent pullback
will be long forgotten and today's sellers will regret not being patient enought.

Again these results are based on ADF winning this massive contract.

There canot be any assurance of that.

But if it does happen then we will be at new high.

If these results do occur, then we will see new high in 2025.

But in the mean time, i have low expectation to see a better valuation of our company.

I have been an investor in ADF since 2021 and will be one in 2025,2026...

[Hich1205]

Let's hope this scenario happens, I will be the first to sell at my breakpoint, don't want to have anything  to do with such management and Board. I invest first in people