Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

The good and bad...IMO

[mercedesman]

What I liked:

Kellum's enthusiasm and optimism shows through , "never seen a situation as optimistic", "don't get chances like this very often", " I put skin in the game"

Trial modifications make sense (e.g SOFA vs Mods). 25-50% enrollment uptick expected as a result. Enrollment expected to increase for other reaons :  (1) declining ICU bed usage of late - pray Onicraon doesn't F that up)  (2)   50% more sites up now (though that was supposed to happen 3 months ago).  (3) More committed sites/hospitals (hopefully that don't want to let Kellum down)  (4) regular "hold to task meeetings" (though as I recall that was supposed to happen a while ago). (5)  expected Flu season, and post Covid, uptick in Sepsis etc.    I'm from Missouri - Show me the uptick ! even a Tick ...or a Tic

Reading between the lines, sounds to me like DaVita will be participating in DIMI Trial.

Understated a bit but SOFA discussion and EDEN study will pay off down the road with much inicreased uptake by Doc's once approved.

What I didn't like:

Can kicking.   Per Seto. US Listing premature (need more robust Trial enrollment, need higher share price...). Dialco Spin-off premature (need enrollment to start - now starting Q2 2022).  We've all seen many public companies create silk purses out of a sows ear.  We are starting with a LV purse in terms of medical need and accumulated body of evidence.  This story as it is now, is not a sub $ 100M USD story !  It's not even a sub $ 200M USD story !

Dodging the question of how PMX might be useful for Covid. We all understood it's not a Covid Trial, and won't use Covid patients in the Tigris Trial,  but that should not stop the Company from talking about the mounting evidence of Covid leading to Sepsis (see Sepsis Alliance) , gut translocation, Endotoxemia, etc.  IMO that is the key to interim SP support until they hit their stride with Trial enrollments.  Covid not likely to end next year. It's an Endemic and  very likely PMX will be useful in reducing deaths (see Ronco, Golden Hour) .  NO other public Company would or should pass on that story IMO

I get quality of patients over quantity. I really do.  But cash burn is not just variable Trial costs, its' fixed salaries & overheads that must be paid whether one enrollee per month or 15.  So delays and missed targets not only burn the SP, they set up the need for more raises and more dilution...and it becomes a viscious circle.  We saw what happened with the last financing.    Either promote the carp out of the science to excite the market to support the SP (including talking about the Covid connection)  or do everything possible (more!) to increase quantity and sooner.  Better yet, do both !  

MM

[Domino55]

I'm not sure how much more enthusiastic and explicit Dr. Kellum could be without jeopardizing things. As for the CEO he had some excuses for the pre clinical valuation but no concrete plan to improve the share price near term.

[mercedesman]

Agreed. Paraphrasing.   "Marketing is not a panacea. The biggest impact on SP will be successful execution of our goals." Tell that to the hundreds of pre-clinical, Phase 1, Phase 2, etc. Trail co's looking for a solution for everything from Cancer to chronic coughs.  For upwards of a decade , marketing is ALL that many of them have.  Yet somehow they create

[PezDalatoYou]

Seto's keyword was 'timing'. There seems to be a lot of cogs and teeth to properly align but it seems like they are waiting on the US listing until a very precise moment for maximum effect.

[Domino55]

Somehow a 98% valuation discount, using their own projections, is a product of the biotech index being down 30%. Okay, makes perfect sense for a struggling pre clinical company with nothing on the table. Not good enough for a confirmatory P3 company trialing a treatment that has been used on over 300K people globally and other multiple FDA approvals. Weak, pathetically weak.

[Accountprince]

To use a different expression from years ago borrowed from a California winery commercial - We will market no products before their time for completion.  I whole heartedly agree with you companies that want a higher share price are capable of reaching it fairly easily.  If the cannabis market had waited until the companies were up and operating large fortunes would not have been made

[mercedesman]

But of course!  I keep forgetting.  Also explains the downplaying of the Covid opportunity.  and the emphasis of Quality over Quantity.  If you're right then value discovery will be rather frustrating then super explosive ... next clue...Baxter @ 90 MM