Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

Size & share of the US Dialysis market ?

[mercedesman]

Let's try this.

U.S. Dialysis Market size was valued at around USD 33.5 billion in 2021 and is expected to witness 6.5% CAGR from 2022 to 2028 owing to the rise in geriatric population, increase in healthcare expenditure, and high disposable income. 

That's $ 52.5B by 2028  (includes Equipment Sales & Peripherals)

https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/us-dialysis-market#:~:text=U.S.%20Dialysis%20Market%20size%20was,expenditure%2C%20and%20high%20disposable%20income.


About 15% (in 2021) is Home Dialysis

Let's say that grows to 25% by 2028  (assumption # 1) 

Value of HHD Sector = $ 13 B   (.25 x $ 52.5 B)

Assumed Value of HemoDialysis $ 39B  (HHDx3)

Let's assume the ultimate DIMI & SAMI owner captures 30% of HD (assumption # 2) , and 5% of the regular Dialysis market (assumption # 3)

That's $ 4B  +  $ 2B = $ 6 B captured by DIMI and SAMI ($ 13B x 30% + $ 39B x 5%)  in 6 years.


How much is that worth to a DaVita, or Baxter, or CVS today ?

One times Sales valuation (a reasonalbe valuation for a Healthcare/Tech Co - in fact very low for one with high barriers to entry) suggests the value of that portion of the market, in 6 years, could be worth $ 6B.

Is that annual potential ( i.e $ 6 B of top line revenue) worth a one-time outlay of $ 2 B today?

MM

[mercedesman]

But DIMI is not FDA approved you say ? 1.  SAMI is FDA approved 2. DIMI is "partially" approved (Hopspitals & other institutions with medical supervision) 3.  DIMI complee FDA approval is apparently  a "when not if" event 4. Analysis does not include Canada (both already HC approved) Does that mean that $ 3 - $ 4B of annual revenues is already, pretty

[Gorf79]

MM, Solid work as usual... Boring but solid. Although the multiple for Spectral, with Dialco  now an astonishingly successful commercial venture, is around 0.02 without giving it much thought and being aggressive at that, I understand that biotech multiples as a whole are on the rise. 25 times Earnings might be back in play... yet here we languish  with absolutely ZERO linkage

[Accountprince]

MM - Thanks for all the work to value Dialco for us.  I think any of the real shareholders here would applaud your work and agree with your conservative valuation of Dialco at $8.67 per Spectral share.  In many ways I think it's a relatively conservative approach and certainly beyond reproach. Given that PMX/EAA are not included in that value it's not hard to reach a valuation

[Gorf79]

That 500 share bid at 53 cents seems about par for the course...  I had the ARC deal on its own valued at roughly $2.50 a share... on vacation and don't have my notes. Maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less. Is todays news $3.50 a share, $5.00 a share on its own? I'll have to dig deeper but I'm confident it's more than a penny. 1,300 medical facilities is MOFOing

[GeneralAladeen]

 CAn someone intelligently explain how we have no volume and no price appreciation with this and the last PR?? WTSF!!