Conservative assumptions?
They assume US $ 15,500 in total revenue per patient (more than Spectral in their prezzie, but conservative if > 2 columns for some patients, but at least more than Spectral's assumption of $ 6750/col x 2)
50/50 revenue split between new Baxter Kidney Co and EDT (sounds like they know something- hmmm?) …but given Spectral owns the keys to the Ferrari and the companion diagnostic …I would have thought closer to 60/40 in favour of Spectral)
Peak market share only 35% , in 2030 out of a market of 125,000 patients annually…for the new SOC? Wouldn't every Doc want to try to save lives with the new SOC?
Plus 125,000 patients as a target appears to be much less than the total possible addressable market ( see slide 26).
5X terminal multiple ( for EBITDA) ? (we know that a better, more realistic multiple range is 10X to 25X). And why would it take until 2030? Especially with ABR on the rise.
10% discount rate (high given temporarily high interest rates are likely to drift back down lower)
Would be nice to see some other Analyst takes on these assumptions and the resultant target prices.
A mere five bagger in the next 12 months is so very disappointing !
MM