Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

$$$ US market Opportunity $$$

[mercedesman]

I find it interesting that Spectral's latest projections for PMX and the US market (only) - page 16 of the Sept 2023 Investor Presentation,  forecast $ 309M EBITDA based on 50% market penetration (i.e if they treat 1/2 of the 140,000 or so ESS patients per annum (assumimg FDA approval)

This does not include the Cdn market. If it did it might be reasonable to increase this figure by 12%

So say $ 346 M USD Addressable market EBITDA (309 x 1.12)

Let's convert that to Cdn $ since that is what the stock is based in 

1.35 X $ 346 M USD = $ 467M CAD EBITDA

What a conservative EBITDA multiple for and FDA approved solution to ESS for which there is no competition, and none on the horizon ?

A super conservative one would be 10 X  (as referenced in previous posts - here's one that says 21X  https://www.equidam.com/ebitda-multiples-trbc-industries/

So using a conservative 10X that would put a value of $ 4.67 B using Spectral's projections and industry averages.

I'll let readers do the math when they divide that value by a fully diluted shareholder base of about 320M shares...to arrive at a value per share.

Hint: divide $ 4.67B by 320M



Of course this does not include revenue estimates for world-wide sales of the EAA (which would likely increase immeasurably once PMX achieved the FDA gold standard seal of approval).

Of course it also does not include:

• PMX use for other afflictions (see numeous studies posted)
• Wider use due to an expanded lable (as evidenced by EDEN and Euphas2 for example.
• Potential for higher dose usage post apprpoval (ie more than two cartridges) - as has shown to be beneficial in various studies.

MM

[oilandgasman]

4.6 billion Canadian or 3.4 billion US dollars. For partnering with Toray and getting just the north American rights? 4.6 billion. Dream on.

[ChesterLives]

Oilman, it is simple math based on Spectral's own projections and a very conservative multiple. This is not a new formula. It is standard across all industries except for the multiple in this case.

[mercedesman]

Right you are Chester. Gasbag continues to show a complete lack of investment acumen. Spectral's revenue & EBITDA numbers are based on their estimated share of the US market only and thier share of the profits after Baxter takes it's piece of the pie as a Distributor. It's possible Baxter wants all the profits for itself but they will have to cough up a reasonble amount based on

[hmmmmmmmm]

Does anyone else find it odd that MM loves to string ou this evaluations- but somehow always forgets to mention that 40- 50% of future revenue has already been signed away to Baxter... How does he always forget about that 50%? And what was the 50% signed away for? From where I'm sitting- it looks like something in the 15mill neighborhood... odd deal for Spectral to make if it's worth 4

[mercedesman]

Hmmmmmmm I'm not surprsed, as a member of the SHOBs that you don't understand basic dsitro math either. It also further confirms that you are "the others" as well. Note on page 16 Revenue: The revenue on 140,000 cartrides (a 50% penetration) is $ 875M USD (using the low $ 6250* per cartridge) They also say "PMX premium priced (gross margins anticipated at >70