Having delved into the latest press release and September 2023 presentation on Spectral's website, I couldn't help but project the company's potential in sales and subsequent valuation. Here's where it gets intriguing:
· Fully diluted shares stand at 321 million (slide 19).
· The U.S. market opportunity is colossal, pegged at approximately $2 billion annually, based on 140,000 patients and a $6,750/PMX Column (slide 16)
Now, let's talk numbers. Using their estimations, potential projections per share revenue look promising:
· 7.5% could mean $0.14/share
· 15% jumps to $0.29/share
· At 30%, we're looking at $0.58/share
· 40% translates to $0.77/share
· And 50% comes in at an impressive $0.96/share
But wait, drawing comparisons with similar takeovers, a conservative 10x multiple could skyrocket these figures (similar range 10-20x multiples):
· 7.5% = $1.40/share
· 15% = $2.90/share
· 30% =$5.80/share
· 40% = $7.70/share
· 50% = $9.60/share
Now, what if the projections of 140,000 patients annually are just the tip of the iceberg? Sources suggest a much larger market, with over 1,700,000 people developing sepsis in the U.S. each year. Spectral's EAA kit, valued at $38, could revolutionize low-cost sepsis diagnosis, potentially doubling its impact with each patient.
And here's the kicker - the trials showcased Spectral's protocol using two columns on patients. Imagine the possibilities post-trial. While consistency was crucial for the trial, post-approval each patient could be utilizing more than 2 columns until the EAA kits shows no more sepsis.
These numbers are compelling and with a partner like Baxter who has presence in half of the ICU units in the united states, it begs the question of how big this could really be since sepsis is such a huge issue and there currently is NO FDA approved alternative.
I welcome your input.
Please feel free to do your own math/research.