'
We maintain our Buy rating and $2.00 target..."
However...
"There are several sources of upside to our numbers. Given that there are no other approved treatments for septic shock, our 35% peak market share number is likely conservative. Leaving all else equal but increasing the peak market share to 70% would give a per-share target of $4.09. Also, acquisitions of clinical stage companies generally use a 15% discount rate, which is what we use. Approved treatments are more likely to be acquired using a 12% average. Using 12% at our current assumptions would increase our target to $2.83.
Makes me wonder what the target would be if you used a 70% peak market share and a 12% discount rate ? $ 5.00 ??
Other upsides I see?
Paradigm is assuming a market of 120,000 patients. Spectral assumes 140,000 ...that's another 16% upside !
Both Spectral and the analyst seem to excluding Canada even though that should increase the market size by 10 - 12% (based on population) !
What if the Eden study has the effect of expanding the market, for example patients below .6 EAA reading, or the benefit of 3 cartridges in some cases ( as has been shown in other international studies), etc., etc.
What about world-wide sales of the EAA after the FDA validates PMX and its companion diagnostic? And what about the EAA's expended as North American ICU's triage patients looking for candidates stricken with ESS?
It doesn't require much of a stretch to reach the possibility of a $ 5 - $7 + target.
MM