We maintain our Buy rating and $2.00 target..."
However...
"There are several sources of upside to our numbers. Given that there are no other approved treatments for septic shock, our 35% peak market share number is likely conservative. Leaving all else equal but increasing the peak market share to 70% would give a per-share target of $4.09. Also, acquisitions of clinical stage companies generally use a 15% discount rate, which is what we use. Approved treatments are more likely to be acquired using a 12% average. Using 12% at our current assumptions would increase our target to $2.83.
This makes me wonder what the target would be if you used a 70% peak market share and a 12% discount rate ? $ 5.00 ??
Other upsides I see?
Paradigm is assuming a market of 120,000 patients. Spectral assumes 140,000 ...that's another 16% upside !
Both Spectral and the analyst seem to excluding Canada even though that should increase the market size and therefore SP by 10 - 12% (based on population) !
What if the Eden study has the effect of expanding the market, for example patients below .6 EAA reading, or the benefit of 3 cartridges in some cases ( as has been shown in other international studies), etc., etc. Another 10-30% upside?
What about world-wide sales of the EAA after the FDA validates PMX and its companion diagnostic? And what about the EAA's expended as world & North American ICU's triage patients just looking for candidates stricken with ESS and who might qualify for PMX? ( it seems to me that analyst estimates only talk about EAAs expended just for those patients that qualify for PMX treatment , but of course you have to find them first)
With all that said, it doesn't require much of a stretch to reach the possibility of a $ 5 - $7 + SP target.
MM