I went through the Enbridge presentation from today and I encourage others to do the same:
2020_ENB_Day_Combined_Presentation.pdf (enbridge.com) What I am trying to look for is where are the key risks to Enbridge not meeting their DCF growth estimates next year and beyond. I hold about 18% of my portfolio in ENB after going all in before this recent run up. Normally I would look to reduce this weighting as the share price increases to less then 5% of my portfolio. For all the stocks I acquire I have a plan to hold indefintely or sell with a limit if it drops or to divest over time as the shares rise. At this point my plan with ENB is to keep this large position unless I can find realistic risks to their performance in the short and mid term. The worst case I see is Line 5 getting shutdown in May. I know many here think that is very unlikely but I still would prefer to look at the worse case. A BMO analyst estimates they would suffer a roughly 3 per cent hit to its expected earnings before taxes, interest, depreciation and amortization. While shutting down Line 5 would hurt I don't see it enough to change the ENB range of DCF estimates going forward with Line 3 coming online in 2H of next year.
Does anyone else see any significant risks I am missing? I don't think Line 3 is at risk with the Biden adminstration. I see the risk with Keystone XL getting shut down which actually increases the value of Line 3. I know debt is a concern but I feel that they are on top of this based on the information provided and at this point it's manageable and don't see debt as a significant risk to their capital plan or DCF estimates.
Lastly, I have been very impressed with the executive leadership team since I started following the stock in 2017. They are conservative, transparent, and have been implementing an impressive strategy to transition away from depending on their liquids business. The tenure of the executive team in the presentation also demonstrates very little turnover and management stability.