Post by
Obscure1 on Nov 13, 2023 1:19pm
Mid day observation
ENB is up $0.50 per share which means ENS should be up $0.22. However, ENS is only up $0.02 which means the Premium will drop a chunk today. Normally, that would be a buying opportunity but is not the case today.
ENB is going ex-divi tomorrow. If the long established trend of the ENB share price dropping $2 to $3 over the days following the ex-divi date holds true, and the trend of the ENS share price not following ENB down by a factor of 0.44, then the Premium to the ENS NAV is going to jump up a lot.
The market pros are sophisticated. They understand that while the ENS share price should go down in concert with the drop in ENB, the reality is that ENS is going to be collecting the ENB divis on Dec 1 and which means that the divi event in a non-issue which is reality. I'm pretty impressed that the market sees that the drop in the ENB share price is ONLY an issue for ENB shareholders who don't want to sell and be subjected to capital gains. I would be happy if ENS shareholders got caught in the ENB ex-divi trap as it would present a trading opportunity.
Bottome line for ENS shareholders is that the ENB ex-divi inefficient market problem doesn't translate to ENS shareholders unless the Premium jumps above 20% and stays there long enough for Middlefield to take advantage by doing a Raise.
I hope that these posts are helpful and not lost in the wind.