Post by
Obscure1 on Apr 19, 2024 10:17am
Don't let your emotions get in the way
Ganyman61: I will try to answer your legitimate question inquiring in two parts.
1) The ENS stock isn't supposed to go or down. The ENS share price should move according to a mathematical equation based upon a ratio of a $1 move in ENB (up or down) should move the share price of ENS $0.44 (up or down). That ratio will drop today (the deal closed which means Middlefield gets the $53,2 million less costs) and slowly move back up next week as Middlefield purchases ENB shares with the proceeds. If ENB goes up over time, the NAV of ENS will go up with it according to the 0.44 ration lessthe payouts each month. If the ENB share price goes down, the ENS NAV will go down with it.
It is important to understand the distinction between the ENS NAV and the share price. The NAV is a mathematical equation that ignores emotion. The ENS share price typically reacts like a pendulum driven by the emotions of greed and fear. Since fear is a stronger emotion than greed, investors often get caught make bad investment decisions when fear kicks in.
2) As a SPLIT the ENS share price has an ongoing obstacle to overcome, which is the over payment of dividends its shareholders receive every month, ENS pays out $0.13 monthly but in order to be cash flow neutral, it should only pay out about $0625 monthly which equates to $0.75 per year. Last year the breakeven number was about $0.80 and next year, it will likely be about $0.70. The number should get smaller each year as ENB rasises its dividend.
The only way for the NAV of ENS to go up over time is for the share price of ENB to go up more than $0,75 (this year) divided by the 0,44 = $1.70 while next year it should be $0.70 / 0.44 = $1.59
When someone invests in ENS, they need to understand that they are really making a leveraged bet on ENB. The leverage comes from the fact that ENS trades at abou 25% of the price of ENB but moves by 44% of the move of ENB. When the ENB share price performs well, woohoo. When ENB performs badly, it gets ugly as you not only leverage the downward move, but you also have to accomodate for the fact that ENS pays out $1.56 ($0.13 per month) but it only takes in about $0.81 per year with the difference coming out of the NAV of ENS.
The share price of ENS has been performing poorly because the share price of ENB has been sucking for the past couple of years. IF or more realistically WHEN ENB begins to perform well again in the future, then the ENS share price will go up.
I think it is a matter of time before the WHEN kicks in because I believe that ENB's management is forward thinking and proactive in terms of its plan to grow its gas distribution business rapidly which is diminishing the impact of its liiquid transportation business. The market has clearly made up its mind that the future of the liquids (oil) business is limited. I exited my investment in Suncor because Suncor management continues to double down on its oil sands business in Canada which are two losing propositions imo.
I hope the above explanation helps. The reason that ENS investors keep getting punched in the mouth by Middlefield is that the investors don't understand what they own. Those of us that know what ENS really is profit from the Middlefield punches.