The Premium to the NAV for ENS exceeds 8% as I write this. How does one explain the disconnect when it comes to the ENS trading pattern? I can't! So, here is a useless tidbit to think about.
My NAV calculation has been low by $0.01 per day from the reported NAV for the past few days after being virtually dead on for a couple of years (other than rounding errors).
The only explanation for lower reported numbers than expected numbers when the ENB share price has been UP everyday is that ENS currently holds less ENB shares than normal. Why would that be?
My guess is that ENS has lost some ENB shares due to exercised options. We all know that Middlefield writes covered call options to improve the return for the fund. Well, with ENB being on such a roll and also going ex-divi on Thursday, it makes sense that some call options are gettng exercised.ahead of the dividend.
If the ENB share position is actually depleted, that means less income to service the ENS and ENS.PR.A shareholders. Middlefield can't allow that to happen so they have to buy back the ENB shares that they have lost due to option exercise.
If I had to guess, I would expect that Middlefield will be buying ENB shares when the price of ENB drops after ENB goes ex-divi. As such, I would think that ENS buying of ENB shares would moderate the typical price smackdown for ENB on Thursday and the following days.
What does all this mean?
The normal pattern of the ENB share price getting clobbered ex-divi has been disrupted the last two quarters. IF the ENB share price holds better than expected on Thursday, I will be in buying ENS despite the fact that I already have a full position on.
Why?
First off, it is smart to plan your work and work your plan, so buying more than a full position comes with inherent risk. However, the ENB share price has been in the ditch for a couple of years and it "feels" like the share price is positioned to break out to the upside. While "gut feel" is important, hope is not a strategy. I'm "hoping", based upon my "gut feel" that the market is going to start recognizing (some already have as the ENB share price has been on a good roll) that ENB might in fact have grabbed a generational win in the form of the natgas distribution assets from Dominion.
If the ENB share price gets smacked on Thursday and doesn't recover, ignore all of the above.