Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

SmarterSquirrel.com - Does FIRE have 439% upside?

[SmarterSquirrel]

I believe we are heading to oversupply conditions in the coming years, but if I'm wrong, FIRE could have 439% upside. See my analysis here... https://smartersquirrel.com/invest/are-marijuana-stocks-too-high 

[bambambigelo]

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[SmarterSquirrel]

curious to know what the 10x is based on? What is your analysis? Based on future tonnes per year of 65.9t for FIRE, an assumed sales margin of $4.74 per gram, and an assumed 11 multiple of price to gross profit based on the ratio that Altria trades at currently, that gives FIRE a market cap of $3.4B, compared to it's current market cap of about $636M, that's a gain potential of 439%. 

[ChazBrown]

Ok, I can read and the squirrel brings up a very good point.  What is going to happen when, once legalization is all done and regulation is all settled, Pfizer grabs a billion from its petty cash and heads to south america where they can grow top grade weed for a great deal less due to climate differences.  What will happen to Canadian growers then?  Supreme should be ok

[Snake214]

who do you think is going to click on your link and read your insightful analysis.....i think there will be too much product...but in case i'm wrong there is lt me calculate it now...yes that's right 439% of upside....first i thought it was only 438% but then i relaized i didn't carry the 1 properly.... Thanks

[SmarterSquirrel]

I guess you didn't read my analysis. It seems the world will provide a lot more marijuana than the world is consuming. Canopy Growth alone is planning to have more supply than all of Canada consumed in 2017 according to Statistics Canada. So my basic belief is that we are heading to oversupply conditions. I am willing to agree I could be wrong as the future is not known, we can only make

[Robindude]

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[yeggolfer]

Not really sure why we need to be calling each other morons in here. The whole purpose of the bullboards is to discuss and try to make money together, not make yourself feel better by belittling others. And last I checked, nobody here really ever posts 100%, bonafide predictions anyways. It's the nature of the unpredictable beast. If that were the case, I'm sure we would all be much much

[SmarterSquirrel]

Robindude, I would be happy to review your analysis of the stock. Please share your thoughts and analysis on the marijuana market and on FIRE.V. While you're at it, try to be mature and cordial. The purpose of discussion boards is to discuss.

[Fastlane2]

Well I guess you admitted you could be wrong Smarter Squirrel, to make a general statement that "my basic belief we are heading to oversupply conditions" is in itself fear mongering, taking 2017 statistics without including the recreational market is the poorest form of accounting and analyzing. There is so many derivatives from cannabis, let's use CBD oil for an example, depending

[SmarterSquirrel]

Fastlane2, thanks for the constructive discussion. The 2017 statistics I used included Statistics Canada 2017 view of the Canadian market at 770 tonnes, 94% of which was recreational market. But given we are trying to predict the future, nobody can really know what will happen, so I have to admit I could be wrong. I am not trying to fear monger, I am trying to summarize my position based on the

[Fastlane2]

Good constructive feedback; You claim 2017 yet on Health Canada's home page dated December 18th. 2017 the numbers are taken from 2015, I will copy a few examples: Economic Insights Experimental Estimates of Cannabis Consumption in Canada, 1960 to 2015 by Ryan Macdonald and Michelle Rotermann Economic Analysis Division and Health Analysis Division Canada Release date: December 18, 2017

[Fastlane2]

With the recreational market fast approaching, medical patients signing up at alarming numbers who really knows, will a lot companies fail....absolutely but those with a solid business plan and drive for excellence will survive, Supreme is that company in my opinion. GL.

[SmarterSquirrel]

Fastlane2 Here is the 2017 data from Statistics Canada. https://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180125/dq180125c-eng.htm Here is BNN reporting on that data. https://www.bnn.ca/canadians-consumed-5-4b-of-domestically-produced-cannabis-in-2017-statscan-1.978482 Totally agree on the uncertainty of coming to an exact supply and demand number.

[JuicemanJames]

The data from stats Canada is way off... they never asked my friends, family or myself how much we consume and I've been consuming 4 grams a day for the last 10 years. Of course, not everyone consumes that much but almost everyone that I know who smokes pot consumes well over an ounce per month. I've ignored that false info and you should ask around for yourself... I've been a patient