Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

Speaking factually

[BeRealistic]

I have lurked here for quite some time and watched the so called "pumpers" and "dumpers" bicker back and forth. A lot of conjecture and misinformation thrown around. So lets just deal with the facts.

Firstly, I noticed a big issue around here are the convertible debentures. If you have never invested in a nascent industry, I trust you don't know how financing generally works. The financing in not only a nascent, but also grey market industry is further complicated. So while not ideal, this type of financing is NORMAL for this industry. The company at full dilution (if they decide to convert ALL of the debentures) would be 360,000,000 shares, not great but nothing to raise many eyebrows over. 

The second part of this obviously, is the arbitrage play that most debt investors will exercise to protect their debt investment from default, which is to hold a short position in the equity to hedge against the debt they hold. They do this so if a company ends up defaulting, they are still able to cover part of the loss with the short. If you look at Supreme's short positions in terms of % of volume and value, it is 17.8%. Which, if you take into consideration other large players (ACB, WEED, etc) is right on the money. So all this talk of "big increases in short position" is balony. 

Thirdly people seem to think that this stock is mispriced, it isn't. It is priced right where it should be for a company currently generating 10.7mm (pro-rated) in revenue a quarter. How much do you guys think a company that generates $42mm in sales per annum suppose to be worth? The real meat and potatoes will come once full capacity is built in.

Now in terms of governance and leadership, yes they are a little greener than some other management teams, but they really haven't done anything reckless or misleading. They seem quick to respond to investor questions (I've spoken with management on more than one occasion) quickly and effectively. My only gripe with them is in the use of cash right now, I would like to see them invest in short term t-bills or bonds to earn a little interest to help offset the borrowing cost, but that is insignificant.  

I and a associate who has litterally decades of experience as a CFO of many large corporations in Canada have looked closely at Supreme and found no glaring issues. I think they only glaring issue here is investors who aren't well versed in investing having grossly over-optomistic expectations for Supreme. 

20 years ago if I got 40% return from any company in a few years it would have been a home run. I think some users here bought on hype and got burned and are now overly pessimistic. 

Supreme is a finely run company that will have share price growth in the medium term (for you traders thats 2-5 years). I've been doing this a long time, I invested in Canopy when it was still on the venture, I invested in Photon Control when it was on the venture, and I invested in Open Text 15 years ago when it was worth 300% less. I have a pretty decent track record, and I'm not sure why there is so much fuss on this board. I literally registered because of how much non sense is being spewed here. 

Take care people, remember when you invest nothing is instant. You may be coming down off of a sugar high from the explosive FOMO rally, but this is how a nascent industry going through growing pains operates. Don't get caught up in the day to day, and only focus on relevant news and look at the financials objectively.

[2Relay]

Good try ,you’ve been PAID !  Stop the bullsht this company needs to keep investors informed and look forward to companies campaign and future results. Us longs deserve to be informed.  I own a Corp company and have borrowed from friends and family and will be scallingn to going public soon. I would never treat my investors this way.  In in other words let’s all sell and come back

[BeRealistic]

I don't generally enjoy being falsely accused. I am not paid in any regards, and am a  shareholder of this company (45,000 shares). However, if you feel like personally attacking someone who is just pointing out facts, that's fine. I would enjoy some arguements based in reality though. 

[donaldmac]

Hold on one sec I'm not attacking you all I'm doing is asking you for an explanation on a value of a company if you do not want to answer I have no problem will that ok

[BeRealistic]

That response was for 2Relay who said I was "paid" to post an opinion.

[donaldmac]

[2Relay]

Your a new poster Feb 22 2019  stop the blsht. Calling you out. I own 450,000 shares , and yes I made a terible error taking advice with CRONNOS instead of FIRE.   NICE WAY TO START A MESSAGE  “I’ve been lurking this board “ quote unquote.  paid worker. Yes iam calling you out employee !!!!

[2Relay]

Here’s another company that we should be pulling away from,NOT.  https://www.fool.ca/2019/02/22/this-obscure-marijuana-player-is-ready-to-take-on-canopy-growth-tsxweed-and-aurora-cannabis-tsxacb/

[brentkosta]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[weedstocks55]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Finnishflash101]

Very nice factual presentation! Thank you! But as one those who have been here for a long time, it is Frustrating to watch other companies to spring up from nothing and gain valuations of billions while we sit still at the same SP Than 3 years ago....and knowing that we should be up there with the best of them. ( cron as for example). I totally understand why people are pickering. I try to keep

[donaldmac]

OK I like your explanation of the value of this company now I want you to enlighten me on your why the valueof cronos is thirty dollars when there company has less revenue less grow space less profit less everything and explain to me why this company did not do the same for our shareholders please explain I'm waiting

[BeRealistic]

They aren't focused on the same operational path, and Cronos is massively overvalued right now. Pointing out a company that has a laughable valuation as a peer to compare too is erroneous. However, I assume much of its valuation has to do with its 2.4 billion dollar strategic investment from Altria, who probably sought large buildout capacity and saw synergies with a conglomerate like Cronos.&

[MaxTMaxT]

agreed concerning cronos...bad comparison...good posts..cheers

[brentkosta]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[donaldmac]

thank you

[BeRealistic]

They still do medical sales, not sure where you are getting your information. They R/G is a composite of medical and recreational sales.  

[brentkosta]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[BeRealistic]

They do sell to medical channels, not just recreational, at least from my understanding last time I spoke to them. Dry bud may not have a place in the medicinal market, but the medicinal market will be a fraction of the overall cannabis market. Infact, the slow down in medical applications should speak volumes to how artificial that all was. Anyways, I enjoy debating you and you raised some good

[brentkosta]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[BeRealistic]

I didn't mean to say that the medical market was small, but rather the growth of it is going to slow like it did in Canada once legalization starts occuring in those markets. I'm not spitballing here, its a fact that medical applicants in Canada for marijuana have drastically slowed since legalization.  How do you view the cash they have spent as "throwing it away"? Just

[TheNameIsHans]

I thouroughly enjoyed reading this thread, (most of it). Its good to see some intelligent and experienced investors speaking out.. this forum has been overrun by half witted deplorables for far too long.

[brentkosta]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[OptGreen]

Good to have you aboard BeR, you provide a sound viewpoint and good information of which I agree with for the most part...my main concern is the nascent assessment to a degree, as they have been building this company for this market for 4yrs+ and to, what appears to be not ready with product supply is unacceptable. That said I believe it was a combination of reasons some more acceptable than