Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

ACB CEO steps down

[jpm59]

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[jpm59]

talk about thinning the herd.....wow serious realignments with ACB. Too big too fast. It's good for the industry,less production & then others will completely shut down,, bs companies,, MYM, HUGE ISOL, etc, even look at MMEN.  The mid size companies with quality product and keep finances under control,, not too large of expansion risk, should do just fine, kind of sounds like Supreme,

[johnale]

Looks pretty ugly for aurora - estimates were for 75 mil.  The Company expects cannabis revenues for the second quarter of fiscal 2020 of $62 million to $66 million, net of excise taxes. Aurora expects to record provisions for returns, price reductions and future provisions of approximately $12 million, almost all of which relates to product sold in previous quarters

[Go0B3r]

SO... Best case scenario for Supreme right now is what, they report $20mm in revs, and don't fall back on their $150 for the year...  CGC is going to report smaller numbers just like ACB... Q1 - 11m Q2 - 20m Leaves them with $120mm to report for the rest of the year...  Q3 - 40m Q4 - 80m - This puts them in the lead of the Canadian market by years end wtf is happening here

[Bever73]

How about 15m , 15m , 22m 30m? For a grand total of 82m?? (With big losses as well)

[Go0B3r]

LoL, first off, the numbers for Q1 are out already, you don't need to change them to help your cause.  Second, Aphria will not report more than about 35mm in Cannabis sales, get off the train, they buy and sell and aren't even close to being a true producer of a product lol.  APHRIA SUCKS my little twatwaffle lol

[johnale]

I think you are on point goober - fire with their packaging ability should easily push out about 20mil - even giving 0 to wholesale sales aurora last q was 30med/30rec/10 wholesale.  looks like the wholesale market just dried up on them - decreased german sales ofset by minor increase in rec sales - hence 62-66.  canopy had 16.7mil wholesale las q  - so they may take a hit as well

[Go0B3r]

The numbers I ran from their capability and sales are as followed.  ***Please realise I have very little to work with and in no way intend this to be true or viable no matter how elaborate it is.  Each quarter moving forward brings me closer to finalizing my financial model for this company and until all the information is gathered these number are ALMOST pure fiction... $7.1m Wholesale

[johnale]

"Finished goods inventory consist of dried cannabis flower and trim that has been processed and is available for sale. Work in progress inventory consists of harvested cannabis plants that are in the processing stage. Cannabis distillate oil is a liquid cannabis concentrate that may be sold in the wholesale market in its current form or further refined in non-flower consumable products."

[Go0B3r]

Man, you got all the right questions for IR John!  I'm going to have to buy you a round or four of beer when this company gets up and starts running.  Regardless, thank you for sharing your information my good sir!  I'll need to digest your numbers for a bit to understand them.  What if your Rec numbers are right and they keep Whole-sales as they were last Q at 57%?....

[Vulcan]

better idea go0.. when everything is all running well.. we should have a big bbq.. steaks etc and have a game of football.. longs agaist the shorts. That wouls be intersting for all..jmho cheers

[Dunworkin2]

Thanks guys for putting forward some estimates, if we come away in the low 20m range, that would be a nice move up from 11m, and should be seen positively by the market. Fingers crossed. Hopefully we aren't all painted with the acb brush tomorrow.

[OptGreen]

I figured $10mil of flower from inventory for round figures...the other ~$9.5mil will either be sold or remain in inventory until they are written down or written off. Your apportioning looks pretty decent but your $23mil could be closer to the $30mil you mentioned, depending on the status of the packaging process....I think this shift from B2B is a major game changer for the company. The CPG

[johnale]

You might be right OPT -  earnings could be closer to 30mil -  they may have run 2 lines through October (more manual) - before replacing one with the 12k line.  as they replaced the one 3k line with a 12k line in Jan.  if so they may have been able to pump out that 10mil in flower - then the rest of the production.  for me it's about wholesale - was it there

[OptGreen]

It is just speculation joh but with the changes in direction, Moore moving into the Pres chair and interim in the CEO slot, the bold guidance given along with the BMO LOC and Griese coming on board, they are not there for Tiddly Winks...they have also reaffirmed guidance all along, with this group I don't see them just pulling numbers out of their azz, there is enough experience there in all

[johnale]

Well we are going 100% rec anyways - but just for this quarter - given the ramp up in packaging (we weren't at full tilt yet) I think having a few million in b2b helps.  given aurora lost their bulk sales - I wonder if fire did too.  although fire had some legacy b2b agreements that may still be in place.  some unknowns- but all in all should be a decent q. 

[OptGreen]

There is a lot of pain out there to come joh, unless it is cash on the barrelhead there has to be plenty of risk carrying most even short term, especially with leaving so much of the product to customer part of the process in the hands of others. The CPG will see consistant supply and shelf display based on consumer likes/ dislikes by area and full control of where, when and how much of all items

[Vulcan]

fully agree opt.. all that is needed here is few quarters to prove to the market we can make substantial money.. i see no reason we are not heading there. Once this is done we will be seperated from the heard..judge on our own.. manipulation.. and the shorts will be hard pressed to survive here..they will move on to feed off another carcass.. we willbe counting days for dividends jmho cheers

[Bever73]

Lol like 2 parrots conversing...well the market sees and knows the reason...massive oversupply and CRASHING prices.....choke on .45c quote=Vulcan]fully agree opt.. all that is needed here is few quarters to prove to the market we can make substantial money.. i see no reason we are not heading there. Once this is done we will be seperated from the heard..judge on our own.. manipulation.. and the