Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

The More I Look at this Deal

[AOGEE]

As of yesterday I was not to thrilled about the deal based on what the specifics were as outlined. Thats because i fell in love with the company and Beena. I thought the company was worth more. I had to much emotion in it.
I have been reading all of the posts here and catching up on Canopy. As I mentioned I still hold 60K of fire at .315 cents. I will hold these until close of the deal as I believe we will make out like bandits. I will end up with 699 shares of Weed.
At the time of the deal Weed was at $35.75. I was doing the calculations with that share price. 
60,000 shares at .315 = $18,900 
699 shares at $35.75 = $24,989.25 (yes by selling yesterday I lost out on $6000 dollars if I had waited until June and the Canopy price stayed at $35.75. 
But it will not. It is trading at about 50% of its high of 2021. But lets be realistic. The MJ industry was wackiy in Feb. so even if the Weed stock increase 25% which will put it at around $45.00 I will have 699 shares at $45 + $31,455. Which will be roughly a $11,400  increase.
I believe Weed will be around there in June just have a look at this interview from yesterday
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/04/08/constellation-brands-ceo-says-canopy-weed-business-nears-profitability.html
If I am off base here please correct me as that is how I understand this deal.

Cheers all and have a great weekend.

[vulcan123456789]

aogee...the whole deal hinges on the prices at close on the 7th...means we get our fire shares valued at .265 plus 66 percent premium and vanopy shares valued at 37.74.. our shares converr full price .44 cents or close to todays price .. better off to sell at this and buy canopy at todsys price

[VK400S]

Sorry , you ou are wrong, vulcan. 1) Fire.to and weed.to are locked in with a multiplier 2) These 2 stocks will be moving in tandem right until the deal closure and removal of FIRE ticker in June. next Q ER results will have 0 influence on fire stock 3) weed price transfer in June will not be equal to .44 cents it will be equal to the number of your fire shares multiply by 0.0012345 (whatever

[vulcan123456789]

sorry for any spelling mistakes i got interrupted... anyway if we are at close to full value i am selling and buying canopy myself much cheaper.. few things can happen.. we could drop to mid thirties in which ill sell canopy and re buy fire.. or canopy could go over 37.74 which is the price of conversion it goes over i bought cheap and again sell and buy more fire .. in the end.. end of may i will

[ridingrockets]

Hey Vulcan as a couple of people mentioned here... The conversion rate (0.01165872?) is the locked in portion of the offer. The 66% is only a measuring stick, if you will, based on the 7th closing dates. If our ER looks solid as it should Tweed will benefit from it on their stock price and we will as well as the two stocks are all but married right now. If Tweed buys Grapefruit USA (really

[Cdnmate23]

I was waiting for someone to post an intelligent analysis like this.  You answered all the questions I've been holding onto about why this spread seems so unusual.  I've played a lot of merger arbitrage to benefit from both sides but this one doesn't fit that strategy.  But it does explain the huge blocks at current range as there's 5-15% intrinsic upside remaining.

[Craiger02]

Grreat post Rocket!! Just a quick question. I know its been asked a couple times already. Do you happen to know how the warrrants covert? I'm holding a fair amount. Not quite sure how they to play them. Theyre currently trading at .185 with the expiration in 2023 @ .40 strike. Any help from anyone would be much appreciated!

[VK400S]

I have to admit that was extremely well said, ridingrockets. And I agree on all points.

[VK400S]

You are correct, people who keep selling FIRE and buying weed.to is simply stupud as these two stock are not trading at par (but very close) yet and you lose money. The one and only reason to sell now is if you think u can invest this money at higher then CGC return from today until June...

[Pedal2themetal7]

  I'm keeping mine and converting to Canopy. They're being very aggressive with the expansion plans for the US and EU. I was reading the financials and they have done a decent job at streamlining, becoming cost efficient and with a very enviable cash position. I like what is going between the giants, Canopy and Aphria/Tilray vying for the top spot. Canopy has made bold

[PTBailey]

Thanks Aogee, I was seriously wondering if I should just get out but this looks much more promising. 

[Buggered123]

lets hope that aphria knocks it out of the park on earnings Monday morning. It will boost the whole sector.  And now if the sector pops, we will also. This deal stinks!  Our share price was anchored down by these hedge funds and BMO and the company purposely for what just happened this week. i avg. down to .23 and im so disappointed in this outcome.  I am voting it down, and i

[Dudester]

what's the point of being loyal to a company if it's such a struggle? So many ???? with not enough answers because of lacking transparency.. Those are my thoughts. I took my $ an ran

[watchmeplz]

Canopy worth almost 14 BILLION! hahaha.. EBITDA? Wait... oh ya.. maybe next year. LMAO!

[vulcan123456789]

i highly doubt fires share price will change at all regardless of markets.. or fantastic q3.. they will keep us range bound.. we know they can do it.. wouldnt look to good if we hit .60 and the deal is .44 .... .38 to .42 is what i see.. or they may take us down to mid .30s and part it so we want the deal at .44.. jmho