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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum First Uranium Corporation T.FIU

TSX:FIU - Post Discussion

First Uranium Corporation > Gold is up a little -- NPV calculation
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Post by idunnobut on Feb 04, 2011 2:05am

Gold is up a little -- NPV calculation

FIU says they will be able to mine 6.8M oz of gold from 2011 until 2029, and I believe them. What's the value of a $20 increase in the price of gold per ounce, assuming (1) they are already profitable before the increase (2) this price increase is not followed by an increase in mining costs (3) the increase is permanent (4) the cost of capital is 15%.

$53 Million ($9M x 15 years discounted)

The market cap of FIU could have (should have?) reasonably moved up by $53M (a small upwards adjustment of
.29)  but it didn't, so either the shareholders of FIU don't care about the price of gold, or maybe there is a complete disconnect between the shareholders selling and buying this stock and the value of the mine. If the probability of failure for FIU shareholders is near 100%, shouldn't the short position be higher?

Show me some conviction, and maybe I'll change my mind.
Comment by lefmike1 on Feb 04, 2011 6:20am
Nice math there idonnobut,  BUT who owns 30-350% of all FIU shares,  not the big boys not the little guys but SIMMERS,and I'm convinced they are playing games here to get the price low or keep it low until the commissioning is done so they can then start to slowly get rid of some the the shares they got in at to 1 buck level ove the past year.Did anyone read the NR regarding the new ...more  
Comment by narmac on Feb 04, 2011 7:22am
lefmike,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I don't have any insight as to what the financing arrangement here will be,,,,,,ecolo,,,,,I just took the $1.30 number from the last financing episode!,,but I will vote for you at $1.65,, :o),,,,,,, I certainly would like to see moneys borrowed over dilution if the prospectus option is a one way deal for the banksters. I cannot imagine why we would not be in a ...more  
Comment by Hmmmmmmm on Feb 04, 2011 11:07am
The Offering is being made through a syndicate of agents led by RBC Capital Markets and including Raymond James Ltd., BMO Capital Markets, Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd. and Paradigm Capital Inc. (collectively, the "Agents"). .Lefmike there are major players involved but....they need all of them to distribute the huge volume of shares. Also, I don't get a warm fuzzy feeling ...more  
Comment by lefmike1 on Feb 04, 2011 11:21am
Exactly Hmmmmy boy  you got it..............................(Bought deal) was something I understand to be if FIU had gone to let's say RBC alone and said we need money  what will you do for us, they make whatever offer and FIU takes it shares already sold.)  Like the one at 1.30  which was a last ditch effort  to save the company.Best effort is FIU opens a certain ...more  
Comment by idunnobut on Feb 04, 2011 2:47pm
Simmers is a possible culprit, but it looks to me that the banksters (RBC mainly?) are trying to achieve a takeover before the mine becomes profitable. Correct me if I'm incorrect, but Simmers gave the mines to FIU in exchange for equity. If they had sold the mines to FIU after FIU raised a lot of capital to buy the mines, then drove the price of FIU down, we could see evidence that they had ...more  
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