First Uranium Corporation T.FIU

Cash Assumptions,,,,,

[lefmike1]

Let's for one minute try to look at this a little more rationall, without insults and bravado and claims to have inside knowledge or boast about where the company is financially without any backup apart from  " they are broke because I say they are"  " they used all their cash and will need more"  Where are these statements coming from?  Usually they are from people who trade this stock, they lost a bundle when it was higher, granted they did pull out ( if they ever really did own shares in it)  before many others here  but now just play the trading game so any negative statements taken with SALT... as they more than likely are in the buying stage again.

.  So let's try to look at this rationally.

 

1)  In Q2  July - Sept  the company was hit with deaths at Ezulwini and a 10 day  shutdoiwn at MWS.  So both lost significant time mining and hense lost money that they could have made some.  No arguments there I hope...

 

2) For the record.....................MWS in spite of being down for 10 PLUS days made significant money and was  also in the process of passing the FN/GW testing that required some starting and stopping for confirmation reasons. As stated previously... MWS made money  

Ezulwinin as we all know burned money... BUT at the end of Q2 the company used less money than they were expecting so they had extra funds in the bank.

Let's move forward to Q3  ( October - December 2011)

3) WE can rightly assume that MWS will make roughyl 10% more P R O F I T than they did for Q2 because of the time lost then... SEE 2)

4) .Ezulwinin was hit with another death, same number of days lost as with Q2 so unless there was a MAJOR drop in production the numbers may very well come out the same as Q2 within 10% let's say.  Now with the extra funds carried over from Q2  and the increase in funds earned at MWS  ( if any,, we have to remember the price of gold dropped close to 10% during that Q I think)  but the company I'm sure increased the quantity they sold in Q3 versus Q2 by a good margin.

4)  The reason they are letting go a large number of employees may not totally be due to poor performance and the company losing money  but because that part of the mine is just too dangerous to mine and as a result, the employees themselves are not doing their jobs.  Remember this announcement was part of the overall decision suggested by the advisory group as a way to enhanse FIU's profits.  So if the company closes that part of the mine until better methods become available to safely mine it,Robotics perhaps?y

The part that is operatting should make money.  DO NOT FORGET THAT AS OF JANUARY 1, FIU does not pay 35-45 of their gold to FN/GW but 7% of what they actually mine... That is a BIG... NO, a    HUGE change to the bottom line and the big picture profit wise.

Had the company run out of money in Q3  they would be in a position now where they would have had to announce something as they can't live off of credit,  So with them getting through Q2 and now into the 4th week of Q3 and selling on a weekly basis the gold mined from Ezulwini at a 7% discount  I would say that they are now making money. 

To those people who say that the debentures will be turned into shares I say your full of it... You are saggesting the absolute WORST scenario, there are many other options available to the debenture holders, they extend the period at the same interest rate, they have in that case nothing to lose where if they dilute they are shooting their own feet.  Dilution is not something that  the big shareholder ( FN, AGA, Sprott and others will  let happen they too would shoot their own feet doing so.. 

For someone to sya that they will sell the company and come up with a selling price of 60 cents a share is also pure fantasy.  To sell out at that price means they have the VAST ....90% majority shareholder approval, at .60 I don;t think they would get it.  So to end this,  the company is operating, they are selling their gold for more now than in 2011 at Ezulwini so should be in the BLACK now .....  

Arguments against these statements I hope, will have backup as I have taken the time to privide mine..... .

[prouditalian]

Wow! Mikey actually wrote an intelligent post without any insults. Refreshing. You have your point of view ( very optimistic ). I have mine which is much more pessimistic. But I do like your points here nonetheless.

[hyperlite]

First of all thanks for the detailed summary, I just recently got into this stock (in the form of debentures) so i am in the process of doing some reading on what other people think might happen. Firstly, you had mentioned that they need a 90% tender rate to get a transaction done. I don’t think that’s correct, it should be 66.6% in which case they can do a subsequent acquisition transaction

[prouditalian]

good points, and I believe you are correct. Do you know if anglo must pay .60 as that is where they bought just under 20%, or can they just buy it at .30 when in June?

[hyperlite]

The rule that they can't pay less than what they previously bought stock at only applies for 90 days I believe. BUT seeing as that they are at 20% they are only allowed to creep in the open market by 5% per year, above that they are required to make a bid for the whole company, and can offer whatever price they choose, but it would have to be a price that they think would get them to a total

[prouditalian]

thanks. The risk here is that they runout of cash, then all rules of a shareholder vote go out the window, and Anglo comes in a saviour.  The BOD of course has to be fair, but can one trust these guys? I must say that the shares have been trading quite well.I am on the sidelines until I see how much cash they have and until the license issue is resolved. Unless we fall back below .20, where I

[hyperlite]

thanks. Im not really planning to hold 'long term'... although i suppose everyone has a different definition of long term. I think that they likely have to make an announcement about how they are going to pay off the notes very soon. the most likely announcement will be a loan from Ashanti to cover them, at which point its probably a signal that they are planning to take them out... just

[lefmike1]

After receiving a PM from someone I will bite. hyperlite,  why do you think FIU will borrow money from AGA and not simply gt a 2-3 year extension on the debentures from their holders?  Yes you can say the AGA has the money  but provide a small inkling as to why FU would go through that exercise,  it would be so much easier to get the extension,  faster adn less legal

[prouditalian]

hyper: A warning HMM and Leftmike have threatened me with lawsuits in the past. Ignore them is my advice. They do not like anyone posting ANYTHING negative. Well, the stock is the worst perfoming gold miner on the TSX in 2011 and its hard to say anything good about the management. They have had one success passing a key test with MWS, and then they went on to lose the licence. Its a comedy of

[hyperlite]

First of all I don’t know why this colt guy is taking the time to try to pretend he knows my IP address or whatever, total BS My thoughts on why they might want to borrow from ashanti instead of extending are that the debentures are publicly traded, meaning that its not as simple as just saying "everyone agree to extend?" they would need to hold a general meeting of the holders of the

[JBBminer]

What fricking Licence are you refering???  Try posting factual Sh*t.... would u?

[prouditalian]

"As for IR, of course they are not going to tell you its a management problem since they work for management." CLASSIC. Mikeys due diligence is what the IR tells him. LMFAO. I guess you assume then that Anglo will buy you out at par? What if they decide not to?

[lefmike1]

Thank you for your input,  actually speaking for myself but I'm sure Colt would agree,  if you are really new here welcome  but be aware there are a lot of real idiots here who proclaim knowledge of this company or whatever and claim doom and gloom and the fall of the roman empire is a result of FIU.  I'm sure if you have done any D&D that you would realise this

[prouditalian]

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/first-uranium-says-mws-mining-right-withdrawn-2011-09-16 here ya go good buddy

[hyperlite]

no Ashanti wouldnt by the debentures, they would issue a note for the face value to FIU and FIU pays off the debentures when they are due. by definition debentures are unsecured... i think that if Ashanti was going to loan the cash they would want it to be a secured note.

[hyperlite]

no Ashanti wouldnt by the debentures, they would issue a note for the face value to FIU and FIU pays off the debentures when they are due. by definition debentures are unsecured... i think that if Ashanti was going to loan the cash they would want it to be a secured note.

[prouditalian]

what does Anglo get in return? Shares of course. if you have not done your dd, the secured notes due 1 yr later have the collateral of the MWS property which is the only thing of value in FIU. i am not following you.

[hyperlite]

Thanks for the welcome. the debentures that are due this year are only 4.25% which is way too low, no chance they get that rate on a new issuance so there is no way current holders (myself included as these are the debentures i own) would agree to extend at 4.25% given the increased risk now vs when they were issued. the fact that the second set of debentures are 7% should be more indicative of

[hyperlite]

notes are debt... not shares. alternatively they could own prefs so that the get dividends instead of interest payments. it doesnt make sense for Ashanti to give them the money in return for shares, if they were going to do that they would just buy the whole company rather than pay off the debt.

[JBBminer]

Good buddy.... They didn't have a "mining right" to begin with.  U understand?