First Uranium Corporation T.FIU

Updated. Our options in numbers. Posted first one

[Critical_Mass]

Assumptions
Conversion price =	0.20
MWS Earnings =	60 million a year at current production and gold prices
	Option 1 = Vote No to both deals and be diluted			Option 2 Sell Ezulwami and buy back as many notes as possible before they convert			Option 3 =Accept AGA deal
Assumptions and comments	The 443.3 million NAV for MWS is from RBC's dec number. I took the current maked down FIU NAV for Ezulwini from the last report.  A likely better non distressed value then the 70m currently offerred, but still conservative especially if we can actually get it producing profitably with a lower royalty rate, reduced interest after the dilution and new mine plan			Assume we can buy back 80m at 87.5/100 par.  We will realize a gain on this of 10m			Not bad on the surface, but I reject this option because it leaves us with a money losing mine and no working capital. So the numbers arnt accurate as there will be dilution resulting not considered
	We Still need working capital, but not much.
	Option 1	Vote NO		Option 2	Sell EZ, buy notes		Option 3	Sell MWS
		MWS 10x P/E	8x P/E		MWS 10x P/E	8x P/E
	Using RBC NAV	Using 10x P/E	Using 8x P/E	Using RBC NAV	Using 10x P/E	Using 8x P/E
Ezulwini	$100	$100.00	$100.00	0	0	0	100
MWS	$443.30	$600.00	$480.00	443.9	600	480	0
Total	$543.30	$700.00	$580.00	443.9	600	480	100
NAV- Debt= Enterprise value	$375.60	$532.30	$412.30	276.2	432.3	312.3	100
Gain on Note retirement				10	10	10	0
.=Enterprise value/share afterwards	.38	.54	.42	.49	.75	.55	0.42
Converting debt	$150.00			70	70	70	0
Current Shares	237.90	237.90	237.90	237.90	237.90	237.90	237.90
Shares issued	750.00	750.00	750.00	350.00	350.00	350.00	0
Remaining debt	167.7	167.7	167.7	167.7	167.7	167.7	0
Total Shares in each option	987.90	987.5	987.5	587.9	587.9	587.9	237.90
					Option 4 = Accept both deals.
RBC Global gold Average current P/E multiple from lates weekly gold tables					25c minus 10m loan from Gold One.  Which is around 4c.  So 21 c if we are lucky and there are no escrow charges.
	2011	2012	2013
Tier 2	19.8	13.4	9.7
Tier 3	24.6	10.5	5.9
					No thank you!!!

As you can see, the correct course of action is to vote no, unless they will buy back some of the notes first and cancel them.  Otherwise we vote no to both deals.

I'm going to email Dion and present my option.  Hope he listens.  Otherwise we should get the shareholders list and put out our own communicaitons list presenting our opposition to the deal.  With 25% plus shares unable to vote.  AGA, Village, Franco Nevada, we have a good chance to stop this.  We should also see how many shares we have just here.  I'll post on that in a little seperatly.

[lefmike1]

Awesum post CM I vote No  even without your very thourough analysis. Deon is nothing but a Schrill and liar  I can say thaqt now since I can prove it. and he can't sue me.   LAST OPTION WAS DILUTION   WHAT A F--ING JOKE He should get the special S, African  rubber neck tie in my mind  

[uranicynic]

A lot to take in CM. I appreciate all your hard work.  BTW MWS produces 25,000 ounces per quarter at a cash cost of $613/oz. This is at least 25m/qtr profit. Personally i will be voting no on both deals. It's totally unacceptable to be on the verge of profit and jetisoning the shareholders. I've got a better idea, we ditch the management.