TSX:FNV - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on Jan 24, 2022 8:47am
Scotia Capital
Scotia Capital analyst Tanya Jakusconek anticipates inflation will weigh on both the fourth-quarter 2021 and full-year 2022 results for North American senior gold producers.
Ahead of the start of earnings season, she’s projecting production to rise by an average of 2 per cent year-over-year for the group with unit costs increasing 2-3 per cent and capital spending jumping 18 per cent.
“Heading into Q4/21 reporting, we recommend NEM as it has pre-released 2022 and long term guidance,” she said. “GOLD (has not released 2022 or long-term guidance) is also recommended as it has several catalysts which could help the share price performance; announcement of a dividend framework and potential repatriation of capital (approximately $500-million) out of the DRC. The stock is up 3 per cent versus peers. In the mid tier, EGO and AUY have less risk than peers given both have pre-released various levels of guidance. Conversely, both AU and BVN have performed well lately and have downside risk on 2022 guidance; AU’s new CEO may release conservative guidance (albeit this could be somewhat offset if repatriation of capital occurs from DRC) and BVN on its operating issues. GFI will also be releasing guidance for the first time under the newish CEO; the operations have been performing relatively well, so we are less concerned about negative guidance surprises. Although we are positive on AEM, we are cautious going into year-end results as we believe the company will be conservative on its maiden post-merger guidance which may be viewed as disappointing versus street expectations. The stock has underperformed peers by 8 per cent since its Q3 reporting.”
She also made these target changes:
- Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV-N/FNV-T, “sector perform”) to US$154 from US$157. Average: US$147.42.
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