Aris Mining Corp. T.GCM

RE:17 gpt Production needs more drilling

[invest234]

his calculations show a drop of only 10k to 20k oz of production when processing lower grade at 1500tpd. that is not much of a drop at all, only 5% to 10% drop from 193k oz. that is certainly not 50%. his 50% assumes no increase to 1500tpd at all which is a wrong assumption. plus the big wrong assumption that their annual drill program finds zero, no high grade at all.
if the wall was hit in 2018 as he claims, then how come guidance is much higher for 2019?
what would his calculation be if they increase to 2000tpd?

all this assumes they found zero high grade in their 2018 drill program, and will find zero high grade after a big increase of 80km drilling on top of annual drilling. how likely is that to happen?

FreeGold1 wrote:
GCM may have produced nearly all of its super high grade reserves - per its own figures.
There may be high grade (11 pgt) production ahead, if the drilling does not find more super high grade (17 gpm+) resources

(Here is what Dr Bubb wrote):

THE WALL (of falling Proven Resources) @ Segovia

GCM hit the Wall of Proven Reserves, and is moving past it in 2018 and beyond

Figures suggest that GCM “hit the wall” already in 2018.
+ Gold production in 2018 exceeded Proven Reserves at end 2017, by a lot!
+ Gold production at Segovia was 193k oz for 2018 (at 17.1 g)
+ Probable Gold reserves at Segovia Were 3.1 X that = 592k oz
+ But the remaining grade is only 11.4 g/t (still good)
+ At these lower grades, costs will rise, and GCM will need to put
Through its mining production 50% more ounces, to maintain its gold oz level
+ GCM is pushing up the throughput capacity of its mining operations by 25%
That is from 1,200 tpd to 1,500 tpd
+ At 1,500 tpd and 300 day full capacity, GCM could process 450k tonnes p.a
+ At 11 g/t, that would be 4.95Million Gold grams ( /28.35 = 175k oz.)
+ At 365d x full capacity = 5.22M Gold grams ( /28.35 = 184k Gold oz.)
+ Gold cash cost could potentially rise by up to 50% per oz., reducing GCM’s profits

However, the wall being hit in 2018, showed no signs of a shrinking in margins (yet)

Segovia Operations
(“CoreProducer”, with 100% Ownership)
Mineral Resources(1) Gold
M&I:                 1,107kozs  10.1g/t
Inferred:          1,246kozs  11.4g/t

Mineral Reserves(1,2) Gold:
  Proven.              68kozs  45.4g/t   
  Probable         592kozs  11.4g/t
2018 Gold Production 193,050 ops @ 17.1 g/t
Cash Cost/oz.              US$618
Notes: 1 = at Dec.31, 2017

This is why the company is stepping up the pace of drilling; seeking more high grade resources You should expect head grades to decline, since 2018 grade exceeds remaining resource Per March 2019 Presentation, pg.8: https://s21.q4cdn.com/834539576/files/March-2019.pdf

A good team of analysts following the company, would mean that the company would reveal its plans in facing these challenges, well before it hits another wall, & brings surprises

see: https://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/topic/20537-gran-columbia-gcmt-218000-ozyr-gold-miner/?page=10