Greenlane Renewables Inc T.GRN

TD

[retiredcf]

Without the specifics on GRN (reduced from $2.75 to $2.25) or XBC (reduced from $3.75 to $3.00). As can be seen, aside from ANRG, it's a downgrade on the sector and not specifically related to individual companies. This needs to be taken with a grain of salt as TD analysts got badly burned this year so have become ultra cautious.   GLTA

Clean Technology Sector Update

Realities of Commercialization Timelines
Result in Reduced Valuations Across the Coverage Universe

TD Investment Conclusion

Valuation Multiples Have Contracted in Recent Months: The companies in our Clean Technology coverage universe have experienced notable share price weakness recently with an average share price decline of 30% since the start of November, and with our hydrogen and RNG coverage and key comparables featuring 42% and 28% respective reductions in their forward 12-month EV/sales multiples over the same time period (details on page 2). Despite the recent pullback, companies with leverage to energy transition initiatives continue to trade at relatively high multiples of near-term revenue and cash flow when compared to companies in more mature sectors with lower long-term growth expectations. That said, we've observed that the coverage universe has guided to extended timelines for near- term deliverables including the ramp up of facilities, the expectations for subsidy support and other factors, with revenues more broadly not materializing as quickly as previously expected. To this end, we believe that the decline in valuations across the sector is a function of reduced, and arguably more realistic, growth expectations. We also believe that expectations for rising interest rates and the negative readthroughs of the Omicron COVID-19 variant across multiple sectors have also negatively contributed to near-term sector valuations given the relatively higher risk profile of the sector.

Updated Estimates & NAVs Feature a Reduced Outlook: As a result of the commentary above, we are making modest changes to our 2022 and 2023 estimates and are reducing the long-term growth assumptions in our NAVs that are predicated on a 10-year discounted cash flow analysis. We are also rolling forward our NAVs to the 2022 to 2031 timeframe from 2021 to 2030 previously. As a result, most of the target prices in our coverage universe decrease with this report, but we are not making any changes to our ratings at this time. 

Our Sector Stance: OVERWEIGHT

TD Clean Technology Industry View & Top Pick Unchanged: We continue to prefer companies with differentiated, difficult-to-replicate products and services, with ready-to-commercialize business models and a well-articulated, plausible path to growth and profitability. To this end, our best idea in the Clean Technology space is Anaergia (ANRG-T, SPECULATIVE BUY, $40.00 target price), based on the combination of its broad intellectual property portfolio, strategic focus on municipal waste, the pursuit of a growth-focused infrastructure model, and its ready-to-commercialize business model.

[retiredcf]

As a further illustration of their extreme level of caution, also in that pack was Next Hydrogen Solutions which was reduced from $12.00 to $6.50, far below the analyst average of $9.83. GLTA

[impega]

Six days ago the TD analyst increased their target to $2.75 fro $2.50. What happened in six days?

[StockGiba]

How about they figured out that they're not getting the selling for tax loss and am trying step 2 other than trying to drop it back down for another shake since the buying that drove back up off of the lows.  As far as the six days go nothing other than the markets looking better in the small caps as of late. I noticed today that the dump didn't touch my decent bid at $1.17 only $1

[miscstuff]

Sorry about that. When the ask was $1.18 I bought back in with a limit of $1.19.  I got the quantity I wanted for $1.187. I hope we don't revisit the low of the year @ $1.12, but I'm shutting down for the holidays until the new year. Happy holidays and GLA.