Gran Tierra Energy Ord Shs T.GTE

It just isn't that cheap

[maldwyn]

The reason GTE lags other oil names is that relaitive to other oil producers it just isn't that cheap. They have a crushing debt load that will take them years to get out from under, even at elevated oil prices. As a long term holder I feel stuck with it, but only an oil super-cycle will make this one pay out. Between its relatively rich valuation, its history of operational problems and the continuing political risks there are no reasons to buy this over other small cap oils.

[baranja]

I disagree.  GTE debt is not that bad, at least it is the same as with other oil. All oils have debt that takes them years to get out of. It is just that this management is not selling the stock to right money managers. They dont' talk about share buybacks.. they don't talk about dividents,.. Management fault here 1000%.

[mercedesman]

Not selling money Managers?  Maybe.  Not selling Analysts?  Maybe - if they can get them to listen on a microcap. IMO way too early for buy-backs and dividends. Debt paydown first ...then buybacks and dividends when there is excess cash.  Probably a year or two away with the current cash flows. MM

[khyber2]

As of the last news release, the will have paid their debt off by the middle of 2022. There must be a reason why gte has been consolidating for the last while.I think it's totally undervalued. Anylists have a much higher target as to what the stock trades at, at the moment. I'm with T.D. Waterhouse. I am holding strong and adding. glta 

[maldwyn]

No. They will have paid off  their line of credit by mid-2022, their remaining long term debt is in the neighbourhood of 700-800 million and will take about 4 years to pay off even at current prices. Presumanbly they will do this before dividends and buybacks which a lot of other comapnies are already doing.  

[mercedesman]

$90 to $100+ oil is certainly a possibility.  even if it takes 4 years to pay off their LT debt the market will reward shareholders big time as the next few years unfold  Previous share highs of $5 and $8 Were achieved with debt.  if you prefer low debt cos (eg  Suncor) you will get safety of capital, and dividends but with limited upside.  GTE is not a blue

[maldwyn]

I believe in 90-100 $ oil.  But if you listen to the market (or Eric Nuttal) share price is all about return of capital right now. Oil is a sunset industry, admittedly that sunset is 15-20 years out, but people want their money back now. You don't have to own Suncor or other deadwood companies to get dividends or better yet dividend growth which drives share price. I also own WCP, TVE

[mercedesman]

Nothing wrong with co's like WCP. Arguably a much stronger company than GTE for sure. I have ridden that one and a few others myself. But it's made it's move from $1.40 to over $8 in the past two years (5X plus)  how easy is it going to be for it to double or triple from here ? Which is more likely to double or triple, ( in part because people have forgotten about it)?  The

[maldwyn]

GTE and WCP are both up approx 5X off their lows, GTE might have a little more upside, but that is offset by its risk and history. I certainly agree Nutall is far from infallible, his completely wrong calls on CJ and Vermillion a couple of years ago are particularly memorable to me.  

[downwithdotcom1]

DIS-AGREE..while the debt is HIGH..its certainly NOT CRUSHING..O&G producers use the metric debt vs cashflow, the ideal is below 1x, GTE is somewhere north of 2 and a bit. Debt currently consists of 2 notes totalling $700 mill USD plus drawings on their credit facilty somewhare below $100 mill..(TO THE OTHER POSTER- this is the debt that they plan to pay off by mid 2022, the notes WILL STILL