Knight Therapeutics Inc T.GUD

Remember back to Samira's last forecast ...

[MrMugsy]

Remember when Samira forecasted 2022 revenue?  It was $250MM-$260MM.
The forecast ended up creeping to $270MM and we hit over $290MM.

Here we go with a fairly high initial revenue estimate and you know she's being conservative - that's Samira's nature.

The cash level is high.
The investments valuation is still high.
Cash flow is amazing.
Amortizations and depreciations are giving us tax benefits.
The opportunities are out there - will we bite ?

Control is in a small number of hands - just the way I like it.  That means they stay true to the plan.

I'd guess we're 2-3 years away from going into another geography.

Price is lower than ever.  I estimate I'm paying 76 cents/share for the operations right now ... payed back in 2 years of cash flow.  That's not really the kind of logic I subscribe too but ... what the hek.

What's not to like ?

[gudisgood]

Just a correction: the initial revenue guidance for 2022 was $260-$265M if I'm not mistaken? Midpoint was $262.5M compared to the $293.5M that we ended up with. 2022 included the $6M settlement. There may be all kinds of one-time events in the future as well, but let's say we take that out of the equation, and we get  $287.5M for 2022. I remember Samira pointed out in the Q4/21

[curiousj]

What are your thoughts on ROI on current business? Especially, given how low GM% are if you compare to paladin who had >70%. Do you think mgmt will have to renegotiate contracts to make EBITDA margins work?

[MrMugsy]

Curousj ... you are right ... 8 years into Paladin's growth, they were over 70% gross margin. I don't think you're going to see that here - you're likely going to see it in the 50-60% range and if we really get lucky, maybe higher down the road. Never say never - I'm just not going to bet on it. My eyes are on EBITDA and Cash flow at this point.  Lots of cash coming in

[Chianchin]

Yet the market spins higher and GUD continues to spin deep in the abbys.