Gear Energy Ltd T.GXE

For those who care...

[masfortuna]

WCS Oil ($US/bbl)

NOVEMBER				JAN - NOV (AVERAGE)
TREND	2021	2022	% CHANGE	2021	2022	% CHANGE
Source: Alberta Energy (Jan 2009 to present)
	$65.25	$57.44	-12.0%	$55.03	$78.64	42.9%

[navajojoe]

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[MRG_WPG]

Didn't they just have a news release declaring a January dividend ? thanks

[navajojoe]

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[MRG_WPG]

I guess I find the WCS/WCI thing confusing... Do stocks like TVE and WCP move based on WCS or WTI ?   Thanks

[zack50]

The WTI light sweet crude oil futures price is a primary benchmark oil price, while WCS is a lower quality sulfur-containing crude oil. The price indicator between the two products is the indicator for whether or not the US refinery chooses to increase crude imports from Canada. The WCS price usually follows the WTI trend but as a rule the oil price discount exists and remains lower due to

[2021Gamble]

Real good explanation right here @zack50 So...to continue the question to the next logical question. The SPR release was designed to increase US supply to balance demand, and it appears it did that based on year end inventories being flat yoy... Now that the SPR is done, does the weekly deficit of 4 mb (220/52) and rounded down now come from Canada, which of course will greatly reduce the WCS

[masfortuna]

 Yes a good summary Zach BUT the SPR is NOT done.  Check this week's EIA and you will see that the SPR has continued to be released weekly.

[zack50]

I think for all intents and purposes, the SPR has ended or at least will end in the next week or two. I believe the anticipated release ending date was early December, but utilizing prior SPR release timing, an early or even late December  date was unlikely. I have read conflicting numbers, but it appears that the SPR emergency release rate over the last twenty weeks was in the vicinity of

[geezer21]

"Having sold the SPR release for $96 per barrel, the present low price affords the US the opportunity to secure a good deal on the repurchase price. I would imagine the process to refill is underway. Whether or not the oil comes from Canada, or elsewhere, remains to be seen. My understanding is that the US will solicit bids." It was release of SPR oil to substitute for missing supply

[pkrash]

You must have missed the news last week...they already tried to buy some for the SPR and had no takers. Going to have to pay more.

[Roscoe747]

All good theories. I can only add that the Law of Unintended Consequences has a way of  making "the best laid plans of mice and men aft gang agley". Demand is the unknown, especially Chinese demand, but historically, recessions reduce the rate of demand growth,they do not reduce demand itself.

[jleer42]

In general, the price an oil producer receives for their product depends on two things, the type of oil and where they sell it.   The two main oil type differentiators are viscosity and amount of sulfur. Heavy oil is more viscous than light oil. Sour oil has a higher sulfur content than sweet oil. Refineries are designed for specific oil types. Also the different oil types produce

[pierrelebel]

navajojoe wrote "...So we have a full quarter where, according to GXE presentation, they cannot afford to pay the dividend, all else being equal...." First, let us understand that less than half (48%) the 2023 production comes from heavy oil with pricing subject to WCS differential.  It is an important factor but let us not obsess with it. Second, it is not accurate to state that

[navajojoe]

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[masfortuna]

  He is going to keep reposting that GXR can't afford the dividend regardless of what you say. I have stated on many occasions directly to him that the targets are based on the median avg. and not on a day/week/month chart.  He doesn't understand what the word "average actually means" OR he has an agenda.  I personally have him on ignore and I suggest you do the