Post by
BBAccount001 on Jan 18, 2023 1:56pm
CAPEX or Dividend
I think we can all agree that the current CAPEX plan AND the dividend are not sustainable. Assuming CAPEX comes down in Q1 as drilling slows, the cash position should swing back to a positive number but some hard decisions will need to be made by mgmt wrt Q2 and beyond. If WTI/WCS stays where it is either the CAPEX or dividend will need to be cut.
I believe there are some tailwinds in our favor and will hold on for another year. I see:
1) China reopening - increase demand
2) Limited new supply coming online - flat supply
3) Transmountain expansion - tightening of WCS spread
Comment by
Roscoe747 on Jan 18, 2023 2:16pm
I agree with demand speculation that envisions 'surprise' consumer demand in spring. I also assume the entire recession premise is overblown. Regardless, GXE has structural issues to address and depending on a Hail Mary of increased prices is not a competent response to the structural issues that need to be addressed.
Comment by
BBAccount001 on Jan 18, 2023 2:40pm
I'm holding GXE as a proxy for WTI/WCS prices. Better than buying an oil ETF, atleast I get some income here. I'm holding out for that hail mary to exit as I don't think GXE is viable long term. They appear to be tapped out. They are producing as much as they can from their fields. The only thing they can do is reduce G&A but that will only bring in a couple million.