Gear Energy Ltd T.GXE

Good morning $90 oil

[Reachme]

This will definitely move things up a bit today....

[lovehockey]

GXE will not move today nor will it move in the next several weeks. Currently it is controlled by wash traders and nobody wants to trade this stock until the wash traders lose control of where this stock is traded. Unfortunately things will start to change only after Q3 results but it will be a slow change. I have seen this exact scenario with ATH Oil in Covid days. The stock wasn@t trading, only

[itsalie]

how do you know there are so many wash traders.. it should move up and down with the price of oil.. tha makes it a buy at these levels 

[lovehockey]

Because I constantly monitor this page. https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/GXE/trade-history I see that majority of the trades are between trading partners. The shares never leave their hands, they only are exchange to indicate the price. Lots of investors won't touch it because they know that they can't rely on fundamental short or medium term since the stock is heavily manipulated

[Roscoe747]

Conspiracy theories aside, Gear will not move up with the price of oil. Gear will langish as a penny stock until it executes on guidance and proves itself capable of producing good FCF on a sustaining basis. Being profitable is not enough in this market. Gear is in a "fool me once..." dynamic where it has to execute guidance. 'Goldman' isn't doing anything with Gear. The

[tylerreddick]

Roscoe, I have to agree. Management really screwed up by trying to pump up the share price with a dividend they couldn't afford. Now, like you say, they are in a "fool me once" mode as no one trusts them anymore. And the missed guidance made investors look a little closer at the company, and realised it really was a second rate producer with their scattered and depleting assets

[Roscoe747]

Production enhancements take time. Gear will be quite lucrative on 6k bbl/d at $80 oil. That is when the buyers come back - after all the top producers are priced out of the market. This is an experienced management team with a good track record and I don't see them making this dividend blunder. I can see the capital markets guys on the board pushing such a ploy though they gambled and lost

[tylerreddick]

"Gear is entirely a play on the years long structural bull in oil " Not quite sure what you are referring to, but it seems you are forgetting that the strength in the price of oil has been because of the production cuts from OPEC+.

[Roscoe747]

Tyler, read the Good Read article I posted for the macro view. The profit for oil investors manifests itself in the dichotomy of the positions taken by the anti-oil crowd and the logical conclusions expected for the price of oil.

[Roscoe747]

"Not quite sure what you are referring to, but it seems you are forgetting that the strength in the price of oil has been because of the production cuts from OPEC+" And, the previous weakness in the price of oil has been because of intervention by US SPR sales. Both are market distortions that do not allow the market to set price. The bull market thesis is that demand will overcome

[tylerreddick]

I guess you just forget to mention that US production is back to record levels after the Covid disruption? And OPEC+ potential production is not "a matter of speculation", as they have produced at much higher levels just before the curtailments. And while I agree that the third world should increase their oil consumption somewhat, their adoption of EV's is outpacing the western

[Roscoe747]

No, I did not 'forget'. Your malodorous response tactic will bear some fruit if you actually delineated the parameters of US shale growth rather than dumping an empty premise into your blame game. Let me assist you: US shale growth is leading a charge to higher US production in 2023 with better production from fewer wells. 2024 will be even better but US shale suffers from excessive

[tylerreddick]

" US shale suffers from excessive depletion rates, high associated gas production, a lack of DUC wells to draw from, a lack of remaining tier one acreage, high production costs and high interest rates on deployed capital. " And yet production continues to rise.

[oilisswell]

Yes, but for how long? Remember when shale production rose in spite of low oil prices? They had to produce and any cost to pay down debt, or shut down. They were able to continue due to higher prices and drilling the sweet spots, maximizing production from targeted wells. Those days are gone. However, as long as prices remain high, they can produce profitably. But for how long?????

[tylerreddick]

" They were able to continue due to higher prices and drilling the sweet spots, maximizing production from targeted wells. Those days are gone. " People keep saying that, but repeating it doesn't make it true.

[Roscoe747]

Then state your case rather than lazy drive-bys without any corroboration. There is compelling evidence to suggest the return of shale's glory days as a swing producer are done. Their production record is outstanding but the rig count is down from those days.

[Roscoe747]

Good point. US shale can squeeze out a lot of oil yet but at $90, not $70. The glory dsys resulted in a reserve of drilled, uncompleted (DUC) wells that could be tapped into for swing production but those are all used up now. Any resurgence of US shale will be telegraphed to the market by a rising rig count. At this time, the rig count is still falling. In my view, the Law of Unintended

[baranja]

never believed in those crooked numbers.  I do believe the real oil production is safely guarded secret.  I think when US declares their oil production, they include 100% of canadain production, which is only transported south to US. US needs about 20 million of barrels per day.  do the math.  I am sure sutuation in USA is dire.  UK also went full shale 10 years ago, and

[tylerreddick]

That was funny, thanks for the laugh!

[baranja]

Local clown you are here.  Aren't you.

[Roscoe747]

Yes, on fewer wells. Better recovery on technical advances but they are shovelling sand against the tide as demand continues to rise. The rig count is not rising and the DUC well count is depleted. The point is that US shale, for many reasons, can not assume the swing producer role again. Never count the Americans out but the anti-oil capital markets and shareholder sentiment make it an uphidll