BetaPro Natural Gas Leveraged Daily Bull ETF T.HNU

The Answer...... $1.86.... NOT $2.00 !!!! PURE MATH.

[CrazyTrader]

NatGas Price	% change	ETF % change	ETF Share Price
2			2
2.2	0.1	0.2	2.4
2	-0.0909090909090909	-0.181818181818182	1.96363636363636
2.2	0.1	0.2	2.35636363636364
2	-0.0909090909090909	-0.181818181818182	1.92793388429752
2.2	0.1	0.2	2.31352066115703
2	-0.0909090909090909	-0.181818181818182	1.89288054094666
2.2	0.1	0.2	2.27145664913599
2	-0.0909090909090909	-0.181818181818182	1.85846453111126

[CrazyTrader]

Sorry $1.86 is only 8 trades, not 10 trades.    In 10 trades the ETF share price drops to $1.82 from $2.00....  While natural gas price goes from $2.00 back to $2.00.  

[Moneyloop]

LOL ! trying to impress the gallery,with the ARITHMERTIC SEQUENCE ???? That is a whicked application you must have . This could be explained simply by a phenomenon known as "decay" or "erosion" over time.  ETF like HNU can deliver high returns over short periods when its underlying asset moves in the desired direction, it can also experience significant erosion in

[Moneyloop]

Typo : Wicked 

[CrazyTrader]

Math is not "mumbo jumbo" it's MATH.     What's mumbo jumbo is words like "phenomenon" "decay" "erosion" "contango" "backwardation"  All used to hide the simple truth.   Math doesn't lie.   It's pure logic.  Pure FACT.  

[Moneyloop]

I totally agree ! but cmon, seeing all those numbers in sequence does look like MUMBO JUMBO . I'll stick to my chart to guide me with my trades .........

[Moneyloop]

On a final note ! Definition of Mumbo Jumbo  : language or ritual causing or intended to cause confusion or bewilderment. And seeing all those numbers , QUALIFY under bewilderment. And yes !  Math are facts just like sience.

[CrazyTrader]

Moneyloop, I was just making it TOTALLY SIMPLE and CLEAR.       The MATH shows you what you call your "decay".    It doesn't matter the "sequence"..... Every Up and Down the MATH shows you the "Decay" that you are talking about.   But because the numbers are "random" and ETF share price not the same as the

[Moneyloop]

Buddy I appreciate the explanation.... My answer with your numbers is 2.05$ . I'm sure it's wrong ! lol What I like to do is , I look at the % drop of nat gas and multiply it by 2 , than I take that % and apply it to HND or HNU to see where the price will open on that given day, negative or positive price. But it's not precise but close enough to give me an Idea when I want to

[Moneyloop]

Meant to say  ( I take the amount )  I look at the % drop of nat gas and multiply it by 2 , than I take that % and apply it to HND or HNU

[CrazyTrader]

It always works out to be less, so you've calculated wrong. Ok, keep it short.      Example 1 $2 to $2.05 to $2 Example 2 $2 to $1.90 to $2 Now calculate what the ETF share price will be.       It doesn't matter what numbers you use...... it's always less than $2.  PURE MATH.

[Moneyloop]

This is too funny ! Thanks for the effort. I'll take my time and try to figure it out... 

[Moneyloop]

I understand the math but like I said !  These ETFs are not 2x on every given day, due to compounding effects, fees and ETF expenses.  

[CrazyTrader]

The "Math" alone should scare the beegeebee out of anyone, never mind "fees" and "expenses"  Understand the MATH, you understand WHY you can't hold long term.

[Moneyloop]

Yes ! HNU history shows don't hold it more then 2 months at best if it goes on a uptrend. On the other hand , HND ,if it goes on a uptrend you can hold it for 6 months. But it all depends on the geopolitical news .... I've bought HND after the reverse split which was in the 11$ range , sold it about six months later.... Made good money....  if I would of held on, I would of

[CrazyTrader]

Yes, the Trend is your friend with these things.    And Yes, I've notice the Chart on HND doesn't look as bad as HNU but haven't looked at the "math" to closely to understand why. Maybe as number gets smaller, the % change gets greater..... where as as numbers gets bigger, the % change gets smaller...... for the same amount of $ change.   Hence HND fare

[Moneyloop]

You definitly did help !  much appreciate the cordial conversation.... On a final note !  The best tool for these ETFs are the charts for guidance, in reference on holding patterns ( SUPPORT LEVEL OR  REISTANCE LEVEL ..... works like a clock 90% of the time.